The contract extensions that the Boston Celtics gave to Jayson Tatum and Derrick White on Monday had been no-brainers. White goes to earn round $30 million lower than Immanuel Quickley over the subsequent 5 years as a result of the CBA restricted what Boston was legally allowed to pay him. White is the higher participant, and Boston received a reduction. 

In the meantime, Tatum did not precisely give the Celtics a reduction, however the tremendous max for a First-Staff All-NBA participant in his 20s is honest market worth. Bear in mind, the brand new tv deal is predicted to extend the wage cap by 10% yearly. Tatum’s deal will embody the utmost allowable 8% annual raises. On a relative foundation, that contract goes to look cheaper and cheaper with every passing yr.

However the two of them collectively together with Boston’s pre-existing contracts for Jaylen Brown, Jrue Vacation and Kristaps Porzingis will make the Celtics one of the vital costly groups in NBA historical past within the coming years. Cap knowledgeable Yossi Gozlan tasks Boston’s whole payroll and luxurious tax invoice for the 2025-26 season to achieve round $438 million… and that doesn’t embody a possible new deal for Al Horford, if he’s nonetheless enjoying at that time. That also has Boston far behind Phoenix’s 2025-26 projection, however it nonetheless is a gigantic value to pay for any NBA roster, and one that only a few groups might maintain for lengthy.

Brief-term funds aren’t even the one situation right here. There are three different extenuating circumstances at play:

• Celtics proprietor Wyc Grousbeck introduced that he plans to promote his stake within the staff on Monday. Grousbeck has sometimes been prepared to pay the tax for winners. He accredited the Tatum and White extensions. However we do not know how a lot a brand new proprietor could be prepared to spend on the roster. Typically you get a Mat Ishbia, who’s prepared to throw warning to the wind for a ok probability of successful. Typically you get a Tilman Fertitta, who let Trevor Ariza go away on a one-year deal, regardless of his Rockets very practically successful the championship within the yr earlier than.
• The second apron punishes groups in ways in which prolong past the proprietor’s pockets. It severely limits your capacity to make roster adjustments. Perhaps the Celtics are advantageous with their present roster on a long-term window, however even when they’re, essentially the most damaging component of the second apron comes within the type of draft choose freezing. Once you cross the second apron line, your first-round choose seven years from then is “frozen,” which means it can’t be traded, and should you stay throughout the road for greater than two consecutive seasons, then that choose robotically drops to the underside of the primary spherical. That penalty is so steep that the widespread expectation is that even groups prepared to pay second apron taxes will solely be prepared to take action for 2 years earlier than dipping again down to guard their future picks. This is not a state of affairs during which you may get beneath the road for a yr and have the clock reset, both. As soon as you’ve got completed a season as a second apron staff, it’s important to keep beneath the road in three of the subsequent 4 seasons to keep away from the choose drop.
• The posh tax method is altering beginning within the 2025-26 season, and it will be particularly punitive to repeat payers like Boston. Beneath the previous system, the repeater tax began at $2.50 for each $1 above the road a staff spends throughout the first $5 million. That determine then goes as much as $2.75 for the subsequent $5 million after that, $3.50 after that, $4.25 after that, after which, for each extra $5 million tier, the tax fee will increase by one other 50 cents per greenback. That is already a prohibitively costly system, however it’s about to get way more costly. The brand new repeater tax penalty begins at $3 for each $1 above the tax line a staff spends throughout the first bracket. The subsequent bracket goes up solely to $3.25… however after that, it goes as much as $5.50, then $6.75, after which, lastly, it provides one other 50 cents per greenback at every extra bracket after that. Prior to now, these brackets had been mounted in $5 million increments. Shifting ahead, they are going to enhance on the identical fee that the cap does, so this may purchase groups a bit extra respiration room as they climb up the board. However on stability, it will be far costlier for groups just like the Celtics to function far above the tax line even when they’re prepared to just accept the on-court penalties of doing so.

Put all of that collectively and, nicely, it is laborious to think about the Celtics protecting this complete group collectively for quite a lot of years with out making some concessions. So, how lengthy might the Celtics feasibly deal with this group of gamers?

Effectively, if longevity is the aim for Boston, the primary order of enterprise is ducking beneath the second apron line for the 2024-25 season. Getting beneath it for the 2025-26 season will likely be principally unimaginable, so Boston must delay the clock for an additional yr. The second apron has been set at $188,931,000 for subsequent season. Proper now, the Celtics owe 13 gamers (together with rookie Baylor Scheierman, who has not signed, however will doubtless earn 120% of his scale determine as is the business customary) $194,337,300, in line with Spotrac. 

Immediately, we’ll should do some trimming. If the Celtics can dump Payton Pritchard into another person’s cap area or commerce exception, they will get again beneath the road with an incomplete roster. That may take them to $187,640,871. Nonetheless, they’d want so as to add at the very least two extra rookie minimal gamers simply to area a whole 14-man roster. The rookie minimal for subsequent season will likely be $1,157,153, so two of these take the Celtics again above the road at $189,955,177. 

Nonetheless, we have closed a lot of the hole right here. The only strategy to shut the remainder of it might be to commerce Jaden Springer and his $4,018,363 wage. This is able to not solely purchase second apron respiration room, however give the Celtics a bit extra optionality within the sorts of free brokers they may pursue to fill out their roster. For instance, they may select to signal a extra skilled free agent for the upper veteran’s minimal wage of $2,087,519 below this state of affairs.

In an ideal world, the Celtics would get all of this squared away right here and now. Technically, although, they’d have your complete season to get it sorted out. They may attempt to get off of cash on the commerce deadline as an alternative, and doing so would possibly give them completely different paths. Think about, as an example, that Al Horford, who’s 38 years previous, both experiences vital decline or a serious damage subsequent season. Then perhaps transferring off of his $9.5 million wage turns into extra palatable than dumping the youthful Pritchard. In all probability, the Celtics will take this into the season and try to determine it out then. That is a dangerous strategy. 

Simply have a look at what Denver goes by proper now. The Nuggets signed Zeke Nnaji to a four-year, $32 million extension final offseason that seemed innocent on the time. This offseason, they needed to frantically attempt to dump it to be able to doubtlessly clear second apron room to signal Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. They could not. Usually talking, it’s advisable to err on the facet of warning relating to the second apron. There are cap area groups now (with Detroit standing out as the plain one) who might assist Boston with its apron points. That might not be true in February.

The 2025-26 season, as we have lined, might be a misplaced trigger from a second apron perspective. Gozlan tasks the second apron to come back in at round $208 million. The Celtics already owe roughly $198.5 million to their 5 starters. If Tatum, Brown, Vacation, White and Porzingis are on the staff, the Celtics will likely be a second apron staff. Frankly, they may even ship warning to the wind for the 2025-26 season. 

Might they hold Pritchard? Positive. How a couple of new deal for Horford? If he desires one and deserves it, why not? Heck, there have even been rumors that Boston might prolong Sam Hauser, who would in all probability have commerce worth on a brand new deal, so positive, go for it. The 2025-26 season, in all probability, will likely be Boston’s priciest, however figuring out that upfront permits the Celtics to at the very least plan for it. They’ll discover another strategy to keep away from the second apron draft penalty, so would possibly as nicely spend the money in 2026 to maximise your title odds in that season.

The 2026-27 season might be Boston’s pivot level. Porzingis turns into a free agent in the summertime of 2026. If the Celtics have efficiently ducked the 2024-25 second apron, they’d doubtlessly be open to bringing him again on a one-year deal, as they’d nonetheless have yet one more allowable second-apron yr earlier than the draft penalty cements. However what are the chances of Porzingis, who will likely be 31 when the 2026-27 season begins, accepting a one-year deal? Boston might re-sign him at market fee after which look to commerce him earlier than the 2027-28 season, however given his damage historical past, that is an unlimited threat. That is across the level at which we should always anticipate the Celtics to expertise their first vital loss. They are going to be capable to carry their core 5 by the 2025-26 season. Relying on how the 2024-25 season goes, they may even be capable to prolong it by the 2026-27 season. However somebody goes to should go at that time.

So the quick reply to “how lengthy can the Celtics maintain it collectively” is both two or three years. That is how for much longer the second apron ought to permit this model of the staff to remain collectively, and that is time sufficient to kind a dynasty, if the Celtics stay wholesome and as dominant as they had been final season. What we should always notice, above all else, is that lots can change between now and, say, the summer time of 2026. Porzingis is the simplest participant to foretell as a mover due to his shorter contract and damage dangers. However for all we all know, the Celtics are compelled to commerce Brown or Vacation within the subsequent yr or two for causes we will not predict. The NBA is chaotic. Who would have anticipated Klay Thompson to ever go away the Golden State Warriors? Bizarre stuff occurs.

The Celtics are ok for now to climate these storms. This staff was designed for a three- or four-year window, and it simply made it by the primary yr with a trophy to indicate for it. In the event that they play this proper, there may be extra trophies forward of them. They’ve constructed an almost flawless core roster and virtually everyone seems to be paid pretty or on a team-friendly deal. However no run can final endlessly within the fashionable NBA, and even when it is years away, the Celtics may have an expiration date of some kind. Tatum, Brown and White are younger and wholesome sufficient for the Celtics to doubtlessly reorient round them down the road, however they will not be protecting all 5 of their present starters in place endlessly.