The 2024 MLB All-Star Sport and draft are within the books, and the commerce deadline is lower than two weeks away. After that we’ll get into the canine days of summer season, and the varied postseason and awards races. Whereas we wait out the remainder of the All-Star break, listed here are 10 daring predictions for the second half of the 2024 common season. Include me, will not you?

1. The Cardinals will spend a minimum of sooner or later in first place

Do you know the Cardinals have the perfect document within the Nationwide League because the admittedly arbitrary date of Could 11? It is true. They’re 35-22 (.614) since then, a win higher than the Phillies (34-22, .607). Solely the Astros (36-21, .632) and Guardians (34-21, .618) have higher information than St. Louis since Could 11.

This two-month heater has put the Cardinals again in postseason place and inside shouting distance of the NL Central-leading Brewers. Listed here are the NL Central standings:

1. Brewers: 55-42
2. Cardinals: 50-46 (4.5 GB)
3. Pirates: 48-48 (6.5 GB)
4. Reds: 47-50 (8 GB)
5. Cubs: 47-51 (8.5 GB)

The Brewers limped to the All-Star break a bit (19-19 of their final 38 video games) and the Cardinals are as shut as they have been to Milwaukee in weeks. These groups have two three-game collection remaining (Aug. 20-22 in St. Louis and Sept. 2-4 in Milwaukee), so whereas the Brewers are in good condition (they lead the season collection 6-1), this division race is way from over.

Our first daring prediction says the Cardinals will proceed their sizzling streak and, sooner or later between now and the tip of the season, they are going to go the Brewers and spent a minimum of sooner or later in sole possession of first place within the NL Central. I am not saying St. Louis will win the division (although that’s attainable). I am simply saying they are going to catch after which go the Brewers for a minimum of sooner or later.

2. The Blue Jays will commerce a cornerstone participant

It feels prefer it’s time. The primary half went about as poorly as attainable for the Blue Jays, who’re 44-52 total and 9.5 video games out of a wild-card spot with six groups forward of them. FanGraphs places Toronto’s postseason odds at 1.8% and that feels excessive. SportsLine places them at a extra humbling 1.0%. Issues are dire north of the border.

The query will not be will the Blue Jays promote on the deadline. In fact they are going to. Leases Yusei Kikuchi and Danny Jansen are nearly as good as gone in a commerce market starved for pitching and lightweight on catchers. It would not be a nasty concept to hearken to provides for Chris Bassitt and Chad Inexperienced regardless that they’re signed by way of 2025. What about Kevin Gausman? By no means hurts to take a name, proper?

The Blue Jays are going to promote. The query is to what extent? To place it one other manner, would they really commerce a homegrown cornerstone participant like Bo Bichette and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? This daring prediction says sure, the Blue Jays will ship shockwaves by way of Toronto and the commerce market by buying and selling considered one of their foundational items.

We’ll say Guerrero stays and Bichette goes. Particularly, he’ll get traded to the Giants for erstwhile prime prospect Marco Luciano and lefty Carson Whisenhunt, amongst others. San Francisco will get a wanted shortstop and the large title it craves, and the Blue Jays shake issues up and enhance their younger expertise base. Bichette’s days in Toronto are numbered, we boldly predict.

3. Elly will get to 80 stolen bases

Earlier this yr, Reds wunderkind Elly De La Cruz was on tempo to steal 100 bases, one thing no participant has completed since Vince Coleman swiped 109 luggage in 1987. De La Cruz’s stolen base tempo has slowed down, unsurprisingly, and he entered the All-Star break with an MLB-leading 46 steals, 16 greater than some other participant.

The Reds have performed 97 video games, placing De La Cruz on tempo to steal 78 bases this season. That may be essentially the most since José Reyes stole 78 bases in 2007. Ronald Acuña Jr. stole 73 luggage final yr, however like most speedsters, his stolen base tempo slowed later within the season. Acuña swiped solely (“solely”) 10 bases in his last 25 video games, a mere 65-steal tempo.

Stealing bases is a grind. Gamers get banged up sliding into the bag so many occasions — do not forget all of the occasions they need to dive again into first base on pickoff makes an attempt — plus their legs get heavy as the wear and tear and tear of the 162-game season units in. Stealing bases will not be simple and it takes quite a bit out of a participant. There is a purpose we do not see 70-steal seasons that usually.

Irrespective of. Elly is electrical and essentially the most charming participant within the sport. This daring prediction says De La Cruz will decide up the tempo ever so barely within the second half and change into baseball’s first 80-steal participant since Coleman (81) and Rickey Henderson (93) in 1988. Go Elly go.

4. The Mets will commerce for Crochet

All the same old suspects have been talked about as potential touchdown spots for White Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The Astros, the Dodgers, the Orioles, the Yankees, and so forth. It’s extremely doubtless Crochet might be traded, however slightly than a type of groups, we’ll boldly predict Crochet lands with the Mets, who’re in wild-card place and will use a high-end starter beneath management past 2024 (which group could not?).

The problem with Crochet is his workload. He has thrown 107 1/3 innings, far and away a profession excessive (his earlier profession excessive was 65 innings as a university sophomore in 2019), and it is laborious to see how a group may responsibly ask Crochet to proceed beginning by way of the tip of the season. In some unspecified time in the future his workload might be scaled again. That doubtless means a transfer to the bullpen, the place he has loads of expertise, and the place the Mets want loads of assist.

We’ll say the Mets will add Crochet, use him as a reliever the remainder of 2024, then transfer him again into the rotation in 2025 (and likewise 2026). They will outbid the Astros, Dodgers, et al, with a bundle that features former prime prospect Brett Baty, righty Brandon Sproat, catcher Kevin Parada, plus different stuff. Crochet to the Mets on the deadline. It has been foretold.

5. The Yankees will make no fewer than 4 trades on the deadline

At 58-40, the Yankees have the fourth-best document in baseball, and so they even have the second-best run differential (plus-106). They’re one recreation out within the AL East and 5.5 video games up on a wild-card spot. By any goal measure, the Yankees have been among the finest groups in baseball in 2024. So why then does it really feel like they’re in disaster mode? As a result of they’re 8-18 of their previous 26 video games, the worst document in baseball throughout that point, and so they suffered the mom of all gut-punch losses Sunday.

Regardless of their document and run differential, and regardless of the greatness of Aaron Choose and Juan Soto, the Yankees certain do have loads of wants on the commerce deadline. At minimal, they want a 3rd baseman and two relievers. You could possibly feasibly add a primary baseman, a second baseman, a beginning pitcher, and a righty-hitting platoon accomplice for Alex Verdugo to the checklist. It is … quite a bit.

So this daring prediction says the Yankees might be aggressive of their one assured yr with Soto and assault their wants on the July 30 commerce deadline, by making no fewer than 4 trades. I do not imply minor trades for Triple-A depth both. I imply a minimum of 4 trades for MLB gamers who step instantly into the big-league roster and are anticipated to make a distinction down the stretch.

4 trades on the deadline is heavy lifting nevertheless it’s not unprecedented. Simply two years in the past, the Yankees swung 4 trades on the deadline that netted Andrew Benintendi, Harrison Bader, Scott Effross, Frankie Montas, and Lou Trivino. The yr earlier than that, they made 4 deadline trades that introduced Joey Gallo, Andrew Heaney, Clay Holmes, Joely Rodríguez, and Anthony Rizzo to the Bronx. 4 trades for MLB assist on the deadline is quite a bit, nevertheless it’s been completed and it has been completed by Brian Cashman.

This deadline we’ll say the Yankees will make a minimum of 4 trades for MLB assist, particularly including two relievers, a 3rd baseman, a beginning pitcher, and a righty hitting outfielder. The Yankees need assistance, clearly, and the AL East title is there for the taking. So is the AL for that matter. The Junior Circuit feels extensive open this season.

6. Kwan will end with a .360 or higher batting common

Guardians bat-to-ball wiz Steven Kwan entered the All-Star break with an MLB-best .352 batting common, the best by a certified hitter within the first half since, effectively, Luis Arraez hit .383 within the first half final season. However! However Arraez hit solely (“solely”) .314 within the second half, so he completed the season with a nonetheless distinctive .354 batting common, or higher than Kwan is hitting proper now.

Our subsequent daring prediction says Kwan may have an excellent higher second half than he did within the first, and end the season with a minimum of a .360 batting common. It has been a very good lengthy whereas since anybody hit .360 in a 162-game season. Listed here are the final 5 gamers to do it:

Ichiro’s second half in 2004 was the stuff of legends. We’re not predicting Kwan might be that good within the second half this yr, however he might be higher than he was within the first half, and end the season as baseball’s first .360 hitter since Mauer’s MVP season. 

We will put numbers on this. Kwan missed just a few weeks with an indirect harm earlier this season, in any other case he is averaged 3.96 at-bats per recreation on the lively roster. Cleveland has 67 video games remaining. If he continues to common 3.96 at-bats per recreation, Kwan should hit .370 in these last 67 video games to get his season batting common to .360. Contemplating he hit .377 by way of his first 67 video games this yr, we’re saying he can do it.

7. The Dodgers will set a document for pitchers used

Nearly as good because the Dodgers are — and they’re very good — they’re pushing the boundaries of their pitching depth. They’ve seven beginning pitchers on the injured checklist (Walker Buehler, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin Could, Emmet Sheehan, Yoshinobu Yamamoto), and this previous weekend they claimed Brent Honeywell off waivers from the Pirates on Saturday and had him begin the bullpen recreation on Sunday. The pitching scenario is dire in Chavez Ravine.

Together with place gamers, the Dodgers have already used 31 pitchers this season, and that’s not essentially the most in baseball. The Brewers have used 32. The Brewers and Dodgers are each in first place, which works to indicate utilizing loads of pitchers doesn’t imply your season is circling the drain. It definitely will not be one thing they need to do although. They’d slightly have a set five-man rotation and a pleasant eight-man bullpen with 2-3 guys on the shuttle. That may be very best. That may even be unrealistic.

Anyway, for this daring prediction we’re saying the Dodgers will ultimately leap the Brewers and never solely use essentially the most pitchers in baseball this season, they’re going to set a document for many pitchers utilized in a season. They are not distant! Listed here are the groups which have used essentially the most pitchers in a single season:

1. 2019 Mariners: 42 pitchers
2. 2021 Mets: 42
3. 2021 Orioles: 42
4. 2022 Cubs: 42
5. A number of tied with 41 (most not too long ago 2023 Athletics)

The Dodgers solely want to make use of 12 extra pitchers to interrupt the document and boy, they could do this by the tip of subsequent week. I am solely half-joking. For actual although, Los Angeles goes to make strikes on the commerce deadline. They will proceed including scrap-heap arms by way of waivers and free company. They will name up prospects. They will get Kershaw again quickly sufficient. It is not laborious to see the Dodgers, even with all their expertise, attending to a document 43 pitchers utilized in 2024. We’re boldly predicting it would occur.

8. Solely three pitchers will attain 200 innings

The 200-inning workhorse is a dying breed. Final season solely 5 pitchers threw 200 innings: Logan Webb (216), Zac Gallen (210), Gerrit Cole (209), Miles Mikolas (201 1/3), and Chris Bassitt (200). Return 5 years to 2019, and 15 pitchers by way of 200 innings. Return 10 years to 2014, and 34 pitchers reached 200 innings. These numbers appear unfathomable now.

Makes an attempt at harm prevention, the third time by way of the order penalty, and bullpen optimization are the first culprits for the decline of the 200-inning starter. Prefer it or not — I do not, however I haven’t got a say within the matter — starters are throwing fewer innings, and it reveals up within the lack of 200-inning pitchers. Listed here are the seasons with the fewest 200-inning pitchers, ignoring these shortened by the pandemic or work stoppages:

1. 2021: 4
2. 2023: 5
3. 2022: 8
4. 2018: 13
5. 2019: 15

Remember that each group took particular care to guard their pitchers in 2021, after the weird 60-game 2020 season. Level is, although, the 5 162-game seasons with the fewest 200-inning pitchers are the final 5 162-game seasons. There is no purpose to suppose that development will not proceed in 2024. We’re predicting a record-low three 200-inning pitchers this yr.

Who will these three pitchers be? Logan Gilbert looks as if a secure wager since he leads the league with 132 1/3 innings, although the Mariners did pull him after solely 87 low-stress pitches Sunday, suggesting they’re monitoring his workload a bit. Seth Lugo is second with 127 innings and Webb is third with 124 1/3 innings. I am undecided who these three 200-inning pitchers might be. I am simply predicting there’ll solely be three 200-inning pitchers, setting a brand new document low. Take it to the financial institution.

9. A 2024 draftee will attain MLB

Final yr, Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel grew to become the primary participant to make his MLB debut the yr he was drafted since Garrett Crochet in 2020. Crochet was the primary to do it since Brandon Finnegan with the Royals in 2014. It’s a uncommon accomplishment, and we’re boldly predicting it would occur once more this yr. The participant: Texas A&M’s Chris Cortez, the Angels’ second-round decide.

The primary participant to succeed in the large leagues from the 2021 draft (Chase Silseth), 2022 draft (Zach Neto), and 2023 draft (Schanuel) have been all Angels, so why would not the primary participant from the 2024 draft to succeed in the large leagues even be an Angel? Cortez, a right-hander, had a 2.78 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings unfold throughout three begins and 22 aid appearances for the Aggies this yr. Right here is MLB Pipeline’s scouting report on the younger man:

With little effort, Cortez produces fastballs that park at 96-98 mph and peak at 100 with energy sink that makes them nearly unattainable to raise. Hitters cannot attempt to sit on his heater as a result of he additionally has an influence slider that ranges from 86-92 mph with loads of horizontal and vertical motion. He would not have a lot really feel for an upper-80s changeup with modest fade and barely makes use of it … Some golf equipment might contemplate making an attempt him as a starter however a extra reasonable ceiling could be as a high-leverage reliever.

Why would the Angels, who entered the All-Star break with a 41-55 document and 10 video games out of a postseason spot, rush a 2024 draftee to the large leagues? Effectively, this is similar group that traded a number of of their finest prospects for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López final deadline, solely to wage dump them on waivers a month later. It is a daring prediction. It would not need to make sense. It simply has to occur.

10. A postseason berth might be determined by way of tiebreaker

Possibly this is not that daring contemplating how the 2022 NL East and 2023 AL West races have been determined by way of tiebreaker. In these instances although, each groups have been assured a postseason berth. The Braves received the NL East in 2022, however the Mets have been nonetheless a wild-card group. The Astros received the AL West in 2023, however the Rangers have been nonetheless a wild-card group. They have been low-stakes tiebreakers.

For my last daring prediction, I’ll say a postseason berth will once more be determined by way of tiebreaker, and this time one group will make the match and the opposite goes residence. The more than likely state of affairs is the third wild-card spot, in fact, however do not rule out a division race. There is a state of affairs have been we get a tie for a division title, and the tiebreaker loser cannot fall again on a wild-card spot.

Previously such ties — winner goes to the postseason, loser goes residence — could be damaged with a winner-take-all Sport 163. That’s not the case. MLB did away with Sport 163 tiebreakers two years in the past and now all ties are damaged mathematically, with head-to-head document the primary tiebreaker). It is too unhealthy. Sport 163 tiebreakers have been loads of enjoyable.