The Dodgers and the Pirates will proceed their weekend sequence at 9 p.m. ET with a recreation that includes a juicy subplot: the second profession assembly between Los Angeles’ famous person DH Shohei Ohtani and Pittsburgh’s rookie ace Paul Skenes — two of essentially the most compelling athletes on the earth, irrespective of the game of the league. 

Ohtani and Skenes beforehand squared off again in early June, when Skenes was weeks into his big-league profession. The following months have solely added gravitas to the matchup. Whereas Ohtani has furthered his case for changing into the primary full-time designated hitter to win a Most Invaluable Participant Award (he continues to progress in his restoration as a pitcher, however he isn’t anticipated to return to the mound in-game till subsequent season), Skenes is making an attempt to change into the primary participant to ever begin the All-Star Sport and win the Rookie of the Yr and Cy Younger Awards the 12 months after being drafted. (Fernando Valenzuela checked these first three bins. Nevertheless, he wasn’t drafted, and his sensible ascent occurred throughout a part of his third skilled season.)

With due respect to the eventual Supervisor of the Yr, it is conceivable that Ohtani and Skenes will take house the Nationwide League’s three largest particular person awards. As such, we predict it is truthful to put in writing {that a} assembly of this magnitude deserves extra consideration. With that in thoughts, let’s dive in on three issues to learn about Ohtani-Skenes 2.

1. Skenes received first spherical, Ohtani first battle

We suppose June 5 is the logical start line for this text. That is when Ohtani and Skenes first encountered each other throughout a recreation at PNC Park. They confronted off 3 times that night time: Skenes received the primary matchup, Ohtani the second and the third.

Their first conflict performed out like one thing ripped from baseball’s lore, with Skenes recording a Okay on three swinging strikes. Skenes confirmed off his uncommon mixture of velocity and command, beating Ohtani with a 101 mph fastball dotted on the within nook, then with a 100 mph fastball to the furthest up-and-in level inside the strike zone, after which, to combine issues up, with a 101 mph fastball up and away. Observe:

As famous above, Ohtani struck again in his subsequent at-bats towards Skenes. However that wasn’t till whiffing on every of the primary 5 fastballs he noticed. Ohtani did proper the ship from there, working a full rely earlier than ripping a 415-foot house run to middle discipline on one other triple-digit Skenes fastball that caught an excessive amount of of the plate. Once more, observe:

“I wish to name that massive on massive as a result of I clearly beat him a few instances earlier,” Skenes mentioned on the time. “I feel that was the precise pitch to throw there, he is only a fairly darn good participant. Stuff like that’s going to occur.”

The ultimate assembly between Ohtani and Skenes that night time offered the least drama. Ohtani fouled off a slider and took a ball earlier than pulling a single to proper discipline on the same pitch to the one he homered on the earlier at-bat.

Coincidentally, the one was Ohtani’s hardest-hit ball of the night time, clocking in 107.6 mph, or a full two ticks hotter than his house run. 

2. Ohtani well-equipped for Skenes’ velocity

Maybe this may come as no shock given what occurred of their first conferences, however superior statistics assist one conclusion: Ohtani can deal with Skenes’ velocity.

Skenes has shortly established himself because the hardest-throwing starter in baseball. He’ll enter Saturday’s recreation ranked fourth within the majors in common four-seamer velocity at 98.9 mph. The three pitchers forward of him are all closers: Mason Miller, Jhoan Duran, and Ryan Helsley. That is acceptable, in our minds, since a great framework for describing Skenes to somebody is “an elite nearer with a starter’s command and stamina.”

Skenes’ particular mixture permits him to hector most opponents. But Ohtani is, fittingly, one of many few who has confirmed he is able to damaging top-end velocity.

Coming into Friday’s sequence opener, Ohtani was 9 for 18 this season towards pitches that had been 98 mph or hotter. His common exit velocity on these pitches, in the meantime, was 99.8 mph. That is not skewed by a few well-struck balls, both: almost 82% of Ohtani’s balls in play on excessive velocity pitches have cleared a 95 mph exit velocity. 

Now, to be truthful, Ohtani has swung and missed at a higher-than-average clip towards excessive velocity pitches — that, too, should not be so shocking given how he began his matchups towards Skenes. Ohtani’s 40% whiff fee on 98-plus-mph pitches is nicely above the league-average mark (24.7%).

When Skenes talked about his strategy versus Ohtani being “massive on massive,” he could have inadvertently spoiled the outcomes of their matchups, too. Primarily based on the underlying information, it appears probably that their plate appearances finish in both arduous contact or a Okay. It is all or nothing.

3. When’s the following assembly?

This weekend will signify the final time the Dodgers and Pirates play this season and, due to this fact, the final assured time we get an opportunity to look at Ohtani face Skenes. Whereas it is unlikely, we do really feel obligated to notice that there’s a risk of the Dodgers and the Pirates assembly once more in 2024, with that matchup going down in October.

Of the 2 squads, the Dodgers have the extra apparent pathway. They personal a 2 1/2-game edge within the Nationwide League West and SportsLine provides L.A. a 98.4% likelihood of reaching the playoffs. Even when the Dodgers discover themselves falling behind the San Diego Padres, they need to have the ability to maintain onto a wild-card spot.  The Pirates’ trek to October, conversely, is extra treacherous. Coming into play on Saturday, Pittsburgh is 4 1/2 video games again of the ultimate wild-card spot and has misplaced 5 video games in a row. The Pirates had been additionally caught behind three different groups, additional complicating issues.

Essentially the most direct path to an Ohtani-Skenes postseason assembly is simple to plot. It might entail the Dodgers ending with the worst file of the Nationwide League division winners, thereby requiring them to play a wild-card sequence towards the final workforce in. The Pirates are a longshot to even safe the third wild-card spot, suggesting that is most likely their ceiling, barring one thing bizarre occurring over the ultimate month-plus.

Once more, it is not a very probably state of affairs (and if they do not face off within the playoffs, the primary Pirates-Dodgers sequence of 2025 is about for April 25-27). That makes it all of the extra very important to savor tonight’s sequences between Ohtani and Skenes, for these are the sorts of matchups you dream about through the offseason.