The canine days of summer time have arrived. Groups made their strikes on the July 30 commerce deadline and now the postseason races (and awards races) are heating up. Much less than six weeks stay within the common season. With that in thoughts, right here now are three MLB developments price figuring out as we enter the stretch run.

The anti-2023 Padres

Final yr’s Padres had been possibly the most important disappointment in baseball. Anticipated to contend for a World Sequence title, they as a substitute went 82-80, and wanted a giant September (20-7) to get to 82 wins. They had been carried out in by their efficiency in shut video games: 9-23 in one-run video games and 2-12 in additional innings. Coin flips video games that would have gone both approach with the appropriate bounce.

This yr’s Padres are solidly in wild-card place and inside shouting distance of the Dodgers for the NL West title. They’ve gained 22 of their final 27 video games and outscored their opponents 159-90 in these 27 video games. San Diego has been the most effective and most dominant workforce in baseball the final month or so. FanGraphs places their postseason odds at a wholesome 96.3%.

The 2024 Padres are the anti-2023 Padres in terms of shut video games and clutch conditions. They’re profitable one run video games, they’re popping out forward in additional innings, and so they’re performing higher in excessive leverage spots. Listed here are the numbers:

Jurickson Profar, an under-the-radar MVP candidate, has a stellar 1.673 OPS in excessive leverage conditions. That is the most effective in baseball by greater than 400 factors — Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon is second with a 1.168 OPS — among the many 100 gamers with at the very least 40 excessive leverage plate appearances. Jackson Merrill, Profar’s teammate, is third. He has a 1.108 OPS in excessive leverage spots.

Merrill’s season actually is unbelievable. He is hitting .289/.320/.484 with 17 dwelling runs and 13 steals in 15 makes an attempt, and he is doing it as a 21-year-old rookie who passed over Triple-A and is enjoying a wholly new place. Merrill by no means performed an inning in middle area till this spring. Defensively, he is at the moment fifteenth amongst all outfielders with plus-6 outs above common. What a participant he is turn out to be.

Already 4 occasions this season Merrill has hit a ninth-inning dwelling run that both tied the sport or gave the Padres the lead, and all 4 have come since July 30. These clutch dingers have him within the prime 25 amongst all hitters in win chance added. The rookie is a significant purpose the Padres have reversed their fortune in shut video games.

“It is all a concentrate on profitable the sport,” Merrill instructed MLB.com not too long ago. “As a result of if I am attempting to play for the homer or myself, then I roll that over or I strike out. Play for the sport, attempt to hit a line drive or a single. In the event you play for the win, it is going to occur.”

The Nationwide League wild-card race has begun to type itself out — bear in mind how crowded it was the primary 3-4 months of the season? — and the Padres are in glorious place to return to the postseason. This workforce definitely is not brief on expertise. Final yr they had been carried out in by poor efficiency in shut video games and clutch conditions. This yr, they’re profitable these battles.

Cleveland’s bullpen working time beyond regulation

Like just about each workforce close to the highest of the league standings, the Guardians have had themselves a tough few weeks. They began the season 51-26 however are 22-26 since, and an AL Central lead that was 6 1/2 video games as not too long ago as July 30 has been whittled down to three 1/2. Cleveland will play seven of their subsequent 15 video games in opposition to the Royals. These can be monumental collection.

The Guardians obtained off to that 51-26 begins because of an offense that added energy with out sacrificing contact, and since their bullpen was out-of-this-world good. Emmanuel Clase returned to “greatest nearer within the recreation” kind after a subpar (for him) 2023, Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis emerged as lockdown setup males, and others like Tim Herrin and Scott Barlow have been strong too.

Cleveland’s bullpen has been glorious and likewise closely used. The Guardians lead baseball with 461 aid appearances, 18 greater than every other workforce, and so they’ve already had 5 relievers — Barlow, Clase, Gaddis, Herrin, Smith — seem in 58 video games. Solely 15 pitchers in baseball have made at the very least 58 appearances this yr, and 5 are Guardians. It is a lot:

1. Guardians: 5 relievers with at the very least 55 appearances
2. Giants: 3 (Erik Miller, Tyler Rogers, Ryan Walker)
3. Six groups with 2
4. Seven groups with 1
5. 15 groups with 0

Final season, 5 groups (one in every of which was Cleveland) had 5 relievers make at the very least 55 appearances. It is solely Aug. 21 and the Guardians are there already. They’ve 37 video games remaining. There’s an actual probability the Guardians turn out to be the primary workforce because the 2015 Pirates to have 5 relievers made at the very least 65 appearances.

Give Clase & Co. credit score. They’ve answered the bell when known as and been the most effective bullpen in baseball by way of ERA, FIP, WHIP, win chance added, WAR, you title it. Baseball Reference has the bullpen at 9.9 WAR by 125 video games. The only-season bullpen document is 11.2 WAR by the 2021 Yankees. The Guardians are on tempo to beat that by close to two full wins.

August has been a little bit of a grind for Cleveland’s aid crew (3.66 ERA), although the underlying stats stay robust, and it is actually only a unhealthy week early within the month skewing their numbers. If the bullpen slips these subsequent few weeks, it’s going to be truthful to wonder if the workload caught as much as everybody. Till that occurs, Cleveland’s bullpen will proceed to be requested to hold the burden given the tight AL Central race. That is, really, among the finest and most reliable bullpens ever.

Kikuchi’s new pitch combine

It’s a story as outdated as time. Or, actually, as outdated because the pitch-tracking period (since 2008). A proficient pitcher joins a brand new workforce, makes just a few changes to his pitch combine and/or pitch shapes, and finds a brand new degree. The very best instance in latest historical past is Gerrit Cole, who went from excellent with the Pirates to arguably the most effective pitcher within the recreation with the Astros following his commerce in January 2018.

Previous to the commerce deadline final month, the Astros picked up rental lefty Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays in a commerce that some thought was an enormous overpay and a few thought was excellent. It relies upon the way you worth the three prospects Toronto acquired. We’re not right here to litigate the commerce although. We’re right here to have a look at Kikuchi’s pitch combine, which Houston has tweaked:

Fewer curveballs and considerably extra sliders. Kikuchi did not throw his curveball in any respect from 2020-22, then introduced it again final yr solely to see it turn out to be his worst-performing pitch. The slider, in the meantime, has all the time been his cash pitch. To place it one other approach, the Astros have Kikuchi throwing his worst breaking ball much less and his greatest breaking ball extra. Typically it actually it’s that straightforward.

Quickly after the commerce, our R.J. Anderson stated such a tweak to Kikuchi’s pitch combine may very well be within the offing:

The Astros absolutely have their hunches — presumably because it pertains to pitch utilization, location, or some mixture thereof. One attainable tweak to our eyes issues Kikuchi’s curveball. It has been his worst-performing pitch this season, surrendering arsenal-worst marks of a .291 common and a 91.1-mph exit velocity, but he is used it as his primary secondary providing. Absolutely Kikuchi would profit from decreasing his curveball utilization in favor of throwing extra sliders and changeups.

That is the vital half: it is working. I am not writing about pitch combine adjustments if there isn’t any change in efficiency. Kikuchi had a 4.75 ERA with a 26.2% strikeout price and a 40.9% floor ball price in 22 begins with the Blue Jays earlier than the commerce. In 4 begins with the Astros, he has a 2.42 ERA with a top-of-the-line 34.1% strikeout price and an improved 45.3% floor ball price.

Why the Blue Jays had Kikuchi throw so many curveballs and so few sliders this yr, I have no idea. He threw 37.3% sliders and seven.6% curveballs in 2023, so the Blue Jays knew what they’d, however for no matter purpose they’d him lean curveball in 2024. Possibly the Astros gave up an excessive amount of to get him on the deadline, possibly they did not. Both approach, Kikuchi has been glorious because the commerce because of his new pitch combine.