After the Denver Nuggets, then the reigning champions, eradicated the Los Angeles Lakers in 5 video games final April, 5 of this web site’s six NBA writers picked them to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves and 14 of ESPN’s 16 specialists did the identical. The Nuggets had been the No. 2 seed, however that they had the identical document because the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder. Nikola Jokic had simply gained his third MVP award in 4 seasons. Jamal Murray had put collectively the most effective common season of his profession. The Timberwolves posed issues with their measurement, however I figured that, even when the video games had been shut, the Nuggets had the sting due to their superior crunch-time execution.
Then Denver misplaced Sport 1 at dwelling. In Sport 2, it scored solely 80 factors, regardless of the Wolves being with out Defensive Participant of the 12 months Rudy Gobert. The Nuggets responded like champions, successful the subsequent three video games, however had been blown out in Sport 6 and, after constructing a 20-point lead in Sport 7, collapsed. Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics had thought, identical to the remainder of us, that Denver matched up with them higher than anyone else, however we by no means bought to see it. As an alternative, we have seen Murray appear like a shell of himself on the Olympics and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope signal with the Orlando Magic. For a workforce that employs the most effective participant on this planet, there are a number of questions on its quick future.
For one, who steps into Caldwell-Pope’s place? In one other universe, that would have been Bruce Brown, however he walked the summer time after the title, so the reply is probably going 23-year-old wing Christian Braun. He might show to be a positive fifth starter, however what concerning the more and more skinny bench? In addition to betting on quite a few younger gamers — one among them, Peyton Watson damage his hamstring early in coaching camp — the entrance workplace, led by Calvin Sales space, signed veterans Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric within the offseason. It’s kind of of a wierd brew, however the core substances are nonetheless the identical as in 2023, so Denver ought to nonetheless be thought of a contender … proper?
The state of play
Final yr: Regardless of saying goodbye to Brown and Jeff Inexperienced, the Nuggets’ 57-25 document (No. 5 on offense, No. 8 on protection) was higher than it was of their championship season. Depth was at all times a priority, although, and Denver did not get sufficient from its function gamers towards the Wolves.
The offseason: After signing with Orlando, KCP mentioned the Nuggets ought to have misplaced to the Lakers within the first spherical. DaRon Holmes II, drafted No. 22, tore his Achilles at summer time league, making it much more vital that Saric, signed utilizing the taxpayer midlevel exception, matches in with the second unit. They gave up two second-rounders to dump Reggie Jackson, they usually gave Westbrook a second-year participant possibility on his minimal deal. Murray bought a four-year max extension, and quietly, Vlatko Cancar and DeAndre Jordan returned on one-year minimums. Gordon may nonetheless get an extension, too. Justin Vacation, the seventh man in final yr’s playoff rotation, stays unsigned.
Greatest case for 2024-25: Braun greater than makes up for KCP’s departure, Murray lastly makes his first All-Star and All-NBA groups, Saric and Westbrook swing playoff video games and, between Watson, Tyson, Strawther and Cancar, the Nuggets discover that they’ve simply sufficient depth to unravel every matchup downside they encounter; to defeat Boston within the Finals, Jokic delivers the most effective sequence of his profession, which is de facto saying one thing.
Worst case 2024-25: Westbrook will get some 6MOY buzz in November, solely to complete the common season taking pictures 52% on the rim and 22% from 3-point vary, a personification of the Nuggets’ two greatest flaws — flooring spacing and bench manufacturing — neither of which they will overcome with out Murray on the peak of his powers; within the first spherical, Murray is far from the height of his powers, and their playoff run ends prematurely.
The dialog
Nuggets believer: You do not have to make the case towards the Nuggets as a result of I already know what you are going to say: KCP ought to nonetheless be on the workforce. Jamal Murray regarded horrible on the Olympics. Russell Westbrook goes to be a catastrophe. Calvin Sales space should not have overpaid Dario Saric this summer time and should not have overpaid Zeke Nnaji final yr. And he should not have, for the second yr in a row, given Michael Malone a bench stuffed with younger guys who aren’t but viable in a playoff setting and veterans who’re not viable in a playoff setting. It is such a disgrace to see a franchise fail the most effective participant on the planet.
Nuggets skeptic: [silence]
Nuggets believer: You need extra? OK, I am positive you will go on and on about how the Nuggets do not shoot almost sufficient 3s, by no means get to the free-throw line and barely drive any turnovers. Nikola Jokic is a pleasure to look at, you will say, however why cannot this silly entrance workplace ease the burden on him? There have to be somebody who can inform the Nuggets that it is OK to attain some fast-break factors each every now and then!
Nuggets skeptic: [silence]
Nuggets believer: Ha! See, I knew you did not have something unique to say. You had been in all probability planning to quote some statistic to emphasise how horrible the non-Jokic minutes had been final season, however I am one step forward of you: Within the 862 possessions that Murray performed with out Jokic, Denver was outscored by 15.7 factors per 100 possessions, and its offense was worse than the league-worst Grizzlies’, per Cleansing The Glass. You’d name that embarrassing, proper?
Nuggets skeptic: [silence]
Nuggets believer: Yep, I’ve you pegged. Simply one other informal observer of a workforce that’s being extensively missed as a championship contender. You possibly can second-guess Sales space’s entrance workplace and whine about Michael Malone’s teaching choices all you need proper now, so long as you are ready to look again at your little complaints when the Nuggets are again within the Finals. The common season hasn’t even began, and it is already obvious that they’ll be superior once more. Malone would not have known as Murray “wholesome” and “explosive” if he had been nonetheless coping with no matter was limiting him on the Olympics. Westbrook might be erratic, positive, however he additionally addresses a bunch of the “flaws” that everybody’s been freaking out about — he can discover simple factors in transition, get to the free throw line, put strain on the rim and create 3s for others. Braun might not have the gravity of KCP on the perimeter, however he is greater, stronger and a a lot better match defensively. His capability to defend huge wings frees up Aaron Gordon to work as a roamer extra typically and defend the rim when opponents put Jokic within the pick-and-roll. Cancar, greater than a yr faraway from his ACL tear, offers the workforce some extra measurement at 3/4, and Saric — an apparent match as a playmaking 5 — can each submit up towards switches and area the ground. Personally, although, I am most excited concerning the forthcoming vindication of Sales space’s draft technique. Please familiarize your self with Julian Strawther, particularly if you happen to’re all bent out of form concerning the taking pictures Denver misplaced when it let KCP stroll.
Nuggets skeptic: Uh, are you performed?
Nuggets believer: The skeptic speaks! Lastly! And no, I am not performed! I may speak concerning the 2024-25 Denver Nuggets — and the way they’re being misevaluated — for hours. To paraphrase my forthcoming manifesto on the topic: The way in which folks speak concerning the Nuggets is a microcosm of every part that’s improper with the best way folks discuss sports activities. As an alternative of appreciating that they’ve constructed a constantly elite offense round a transcendent, wholly unique famous person, folks complain that they do not do issues the very same manner as everyone else. As an alternative of applauding Murray for enjoying by a calf harm and an elbow harm within the playoffs — and making a number of game-winners — and suiting up for Canada at lower than 100%, folks use his numbers in these conditions towards him. As an alternative of specializing in the truth that lineups that includes their 4 returning starters had a plus-13.2 level differential final season, folks lament the lack of the fifth starter as if he had been a famous person. Hey, what if the Nuggets are so laborious to cease in clutch conditions partially as a result of they do not depend on 3s, whistles or forcing turnovers? What if Murray’s willingness to play by ache is among the causes the entrance workplace loves him and is comfy investing in him long-term? What if the entrance workplace believes Braun can elevate the workforce’s ceiling, and that throwing him to the wolves is one of the simplest ways to ensure he reaches his? I perceive that the Nuggets did not signal Paul George or make some enormous commerce this summer time, however they gained the championship two seasons in the past and might need repeated if not for one ghastly second half towards Minnesota. Groups this good needn’t make large strikes, and, till the league figures out a solution for the Murray-Jokic two-man recreation, I do not see any purpose to be down on this one. Bear in mind how excited the basketball intelligentsia was when Aaron Gordon first bought to Denver? The Nuggets are manner higher than they had been then, they usually’re battle-tested. I might have picked them towards the Celtics final season, and I will choose them to win the 2025 title proper now. I do not care that they are not the shiny new factor.
Nuggets skeptic: Effectively, that was loads. Your manifesto sounds attention-grabbing, although. Ever suppose you is perhaps a tad defensive concerning the Nuggets? Possibly a wee bit insecure about their title probabilities? In that case, I ponder why that is perhaps! Anyway, you really did a good job of outlining most of the workforce’s potential issues earlier than you waved all of them away. All I used to be going to say — had you not determined to talk for me — was that we’re about to study loads about this workforce and the entrance workplace that constructed it. I do know that the 4 returning starters are superior collectively, and I do know that Braun can at the very least play within the playoffs. KCP, Bruce Brown and Jeff Inexperienced had been all vital through the title run, although, and I’ve completely no thought if the complementary gamers on this roster can fill their footwear. It was mere months in the past that Malone eliminated Peyton Watson from the playoff rotation as a result of no one was guarding him. On the similar time, Westbrook, as a member of the Clippers, was going utterly haywire. I might need been a bit cautious about giving Murray all that assured cash, however I wasn’t even planning to criticize Sales space for that — I am prepared to imagine that he is aware of way more about Murray’s bodily situation than most of the people does. I am much less prepared, nevertheless, to offer Sales space the advantage of the doubt concerning the younger guys’ readiness to play on the highest degree and the Nuggets’ post-title expertise drain. Nonetheless, whereas I can not converse for the basketball intelligentsia, I can not wait to see Murray and Jokic run the two-man recreation towards the Thunder on Oct. 24, and I am open to the likelihood that this roster has every part it wants. This (sane, mildly important) perspective does not lend itself to a manifesto, however it’s higher than making predictions in blind religion. Primarily based on what we all know proper now, I will take OKC within the opener and within the West.
