The Houston Rockets have managed their rebuild about as responsibly as doable. They’ve hoarded draft picks, and so far accomplished comparatively effectively with them. They’ve pursued veteran free brokers, however have at all times managed to take action with a watch on worth. They acquired Dillon Brooks when his fame was in tatters, and gave different free brokers like Fred VanVleet and Jock Landale group choices to maximise their very own flexibility. Most significantly, they have not rushed. Normal supervisor Rafael Stone has been fairly easy on that time. When the Jimmy Butler rumor cycle began final week, he went on SiriusXM NBA Radio to inform the world he does not intend to make a blockbuster transfer any time quickly.
“We like this group. We positively don’t intend to alter something, and I might be shocked if one thing modifications this season,” Stone mentioned. “We like the place we’re at. We wish to proceed to develop our guys, full cease. Will I hearken to different groups? In fact I’ll, that is my job. However once more, no, there isn’t any a part of me, there isn’t any a part of our decision-making course of that means that we’re trying to do something huge now or within the close to time period.”
It is a noble sentiment, not precisely dissimilar to Sam Presti’s “now we have to complete our breakfast earlier than we begin appearing like we’re on the cusp of one thing,” quote from roughly a yr in the past. Sluggish, methodical rebuilds are usually the simplest ones, and Houston noticed firsthand simply how efficient Oklahoma Metropolis’s strategy to rebuilding has been on Saturday, when the Thunder knocked the Rockets out of the NBA Cup. Oklahoma Metropolis by no means rushed. It now has most likely essentially the most envious total roster and asset outlook in basketball. The Rockets are gunning for one thing related. However Saturday’s loss, and Houston’s total NBA Cup efficiency, level towards a delicate distinction that the Rockets must be cognizant of: The Thunder have an MVP candidate and they don’t.
That wasn’t the one distinction between the Rockets and Thunder on Saturday, but it surely was the pertinent one. Within the rock combat to finish all rock fights, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander managed to seek out 32 big factors in a 111-96 victory. No Rocket even reached 20 towards the Thunder. Alperen Sengun did so towards the Warriors on Wednesday, however Golden State held Houston to simply 91 factors within the quarterfinal.
Once more, we’re nonetheless fairly early into this Houston rebuild. It isn’t truthful to attract sweeping conclusions but, and the defensive id the Rockets have cultivated goes to show extraordinarily invaluable in the long term. However man, is scoring a slog for them, particularly within the largest moments. Their No. 18 offensive rating is regarding, however bear in mind, Minnesota rode an identical defense-first statistical profile to the Western Convention finals a yr in the past. The distinction was that Minnesota had Anthony Edwards, and will subsequently at the very least maintain tempo offensively when it counted. These Timberwolves ranked sixteenth in fourth-quarter offense. These Rockets rank twenty fifth.
These are the moments through which an offense have to be judged. The Rockets are hovering round league-average on offense total, however as soon as the protection locks in, their lack of a singular, apex-level shot-creator turns into most obvious. These NBA Cup video games towards the Warriors and Thunder are the closest approximations of the playoffs they will get in the course of the common season. Each video games got here towards top-five offenses. Each featured a number of days of relaxation and, extra importantly, game-planning. And on each events, the Rockets struggled to fulfill the better offensive problem.
That is to not say they by no means will. Alperen Sengun’s offensive numbers are down throughout the board this season, however he flirted with an All-Star berth a season in the past and remains to be in solely his fourth season. Circumstances aren’t doing him any favors right here. Until you are Nikola Jokic, facilities that function offensive hubs are pretty reliant on correct spacing to keep away from doubles and create slicing lanes for savy teammates. Houston ranks 18th in 3-point makes an attempt and twenty eighth in 3-point proportion.
Settling the taking pictures guard spot internally for the lengthy haul would possibly clear up a few of these issues. In an ideal world, Jalen Inexperienced, who has the athleticism and shot-profile of a standard, high-usage All-Star, would simply turn into that participant persistently. That hasn’t occurred but. If it will definitely does? Nice. If not? Maybe an eventual transition to Reed Sheppard, the No. 3 total decide in final yr’s draft and probably the greatest taking pictures prospects in latest reminiscence, may open the ground up sufficient for Sengun to totally turn into the offensive centerpiece Houston wants. Perhaps Sheppard ultimately will get there himself.
The overarching level right here is that Houston is not essentially loopy for preferring to let issues play out organically in the meanwhile. They’ve the youth and belongings to make a transfer if and when the suitable one presents itself.
However these NBA Cup video games have proven us, comparatively convincingly, what these Rockets are in high-leverage moments at this level. The protection is prepared for primetime. The offense isn’t. With out both important inner development within the very close to future or a large commerce of some kind, this group simply is not going to have the ability to rating sufficient to meaningfully contend for the 2025 championship. If the Rockets are content material to eat their breakfast earlier than enthusiastic about lunch, effectively, that is not the worst end result. But it surely’s one the Rockets must brace for. Even when the accountable rebuilding path is the right one, it tends to return with loads of bumps and bruises alongside the way in which.
