The Los Angeles Dodgers, the defending World Collection champions and Main League Baseball’s most profitable workforce over the previous decade, continued their busy offseason over the weekend. First, they efficiently wooed Japanese ace Roki Sasaki to take much less cash to hitch his Workforce Japan teammates Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Then, they added left-hander Tanner Scott to a profitable four-year contract.

With lower than a month to go till pitchers and catchers report, the Dodgers seem primed to enter the season as soon as once more thought-about the favorites to seize the title. 

Naturally, that obtained us to fascinated by what it will take for the Dodgers to not simply fall in need of the World Collection — any seasoned baseball observer is aware of there are few ensures as far as postseason success goes — however to overlook the playoffs completely. 

Beneath, then, we have highlighted 4 dynamics that, in conjunction, would end in one of many largest team-level disappointments in latest reminiscence. (You could recall that we carried out the same brainstorming session final yr.) A phrase earlier than continuing: we’re not saying the Dodgers will or are prone to miss the playoffs. That is merely an examination of what it will take for that to come back into query. 

For those who’re a Dodgers fan, it’s best to view it as a praise of kinds; we’re not writing these sorts of items for groups with apparent routes out of rivalry.

Now, onward.

1. The damage bug

Well being is the unseen mover of each baseball season. It shapes playoff photos, roster strikes, award races. Something and every thing the sport has to supply is impacted by well being, but it is inconceivable to foretell in any significant means. In flip, that makes it the final word wild card for each workforce, and the obvious potential foil to the Dodgers — a workforce that is banking lots on pitchers, like Tyler Glasnow and Roki Sasaki, who’ve struggled with their fair proportion of sturdiness woes in recent times.

Contemplate how, simply final season, the Atlanta Braves needed to play most of their video games with out ace Spencer Strider and reigning Most Worthwhile Participant Award recipient Ronald Acuña Jr. Understandably, the Braves underperformed with out two of their greatest gamers. They nonetheless made the playoffs, however it took till the season’s ultimate recreation to get in — a far cry from what most anticipated from that roster heading into the spring.

In fact, it is not likely about what number of accidents the Dodgers endure — it is extra about who will get damage. To wit, no workforce tallied extra days misplaced to the IL final season than the Dodgers did, based on Baseball Prospectus’ database. They nonetheless gained 98 video games and the World Collection. For the Dodgers’ possibilities to be severely dented by damage alone, they’d must endure from a Braves-like run of suboptimal cube rolls.

2. Leaky bullpen 

The simplest means for a superb workforce to underperform is to play poorly in late-and-close conditions — particularly, to discipline a bullpen incapable of holding onto small leads.

On paper, the Dodgers seem to have a superb aid corps. There’s Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, and so forth. It is laborious to foresee the Dodgers receiving below-average manufacturing from that group. A extra life like doomsday state of affairs has them melting down extra typically than anticipated based mostly on their numbers.

For an instance of that, look no additional than the 2024 Chicago Cubs. Chicago’s bullpen had the tenth greatest ERA in all of the majors. But in addition they ranked fifth in meltdowns, a FanGraphs-based statistic that makes use of Win Likelihood Added to guage how a lot a bullpen contributed to/towards their workforce’s probabilities of victory. The Cubs went 23-28 in one-run video games, lacking the postseason by six video games within the course of.

Once more, the Dodgers falling sufferer to some unlucky late-inning sequencing by itself most likely would not be sufficient to depart them on the skin wanting in. 

3. Stars hit decline part

In comparison with the 2 choices above, this one feels extra tangible. In spite of everything, each season appears to comprise a couple of sudden declines. 

At absolute minimal, it is value being conscious that the Dodgers’ lineup is getting lengthy within the tooth: the present projected beginning 9 options only one participant who’ll end the season on the sunny aspect of 30 years outdated: second baseman Hyeseong Kim.

Freddie Freeman is getting into his age-35 marketing campaign; Max Muncy his age-34; Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Michael Conforto their age-32 and so forth. It is not out of the query that no less than a couple of of these gamers play worse than anticipated. Heck, it is potential that a couple of play a lot worse than anticipated.

Now, there is a huge distinction between Betts cratering and Conforto doing it. The purpose right here is simply that the best-laid plans can and sometimes do go awry. Have been a steeper-than-expected decline to plague a couple of key people … nicely, who is aware of. However should you’re in search of how the Dodgers would possibly underperform, that is one concept to circle.

4. Different groups get fortunate

The fourth and ultimate issue has to do with the opposite Nationwide League groups overperforming their expectations, a lot the best way the San Francisco Giants did in 2021 once they gained 107 video games and the NL West crown. (The Dodgers laughed final that fall, defeating the Giants 3-2 within the best-of-five NL Division Collection.)

The expanded postseason means the Dodgers have extra margin for error on this entrance. Even when they have been to complete second or third within the West — and the latter appears extremely unlikely until a number of of the chances above unfold in live performance — they might nonetheless have a official pathway into the event. A number of different NL groups must outkick their protection for there to be a practical probability of L.A. lacking out. 

That is not to counsel it is inconceivable that the Dodgers are absent come October. There isn’t a such factor as a fait accompli in baseball. It does counsel, nevertheless, that these Dodgers as soon as once more look as near invincible as any workforce in latest reminiscence.