After a down 12 months by his requirements in 2024, Pete Alonso guess on himself this offseason. Thus far, that guess is paying off, as Alonso is slashing .349/.469/.674 to steer the Nationwide League in all three classes whereas hitting 9 house runs and driving in 33. The 30-year-old has put himself ready to land a wholesome payday subsequent offseason and he is additionally been a fixture of profitable MLB house run picks in the course of the first six weeks of the season.
Alonso hit one other house run on Monday and has a number of hits in three of his final 4 video games. FanDuel Sportsbook has him listed at +350 within the MLB house run odds on Tuesday in Arizona, however is there sufficient meat on that bone to his him in your MLB HR picks? With MLB props obtainable for nearly each participant in each recreation at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s confirmed pc mannequin can assist you discover worth so as to add to your MLB house run picks.
The mannequin simulates each recreation 10,000 occasions and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks because the begin of the season. The mannequin has been routinely calling house run props and is up 32.05 models over the last 28 days. Now, the mannequin and SportsLine’s staff of Information Scientists have revealed their projections for among the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. These three picks can be parlayed for +8108 odds and would pay out $410.41 on a $5 guess at FanDuel.
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+350)
For our FanDuel Dinger Tuesday picks and parlays, we’re enjoying Schwarber at +285 right here. Nonetheless, you will discover this line for as excessive as +350, which continues to be a price contemplating that BetMGM and Caesars each have him priced at +240. Schwarber leads the Nationwide League with 11 house runs and he is 3-for-8 with a house run off Rays starter Drew Rasmussen. He’ll additionally profit from temperatures within the mid-80s and a delicate breeze forecasted to blow out to proper area on Tuesday night time.
“If you will get Schwarber at +300 or increased towards a right-handed pitcher, there may be nearly all the time going to be worth on him to hit a HR,” SportsLine knowledge analyst Jacob Fetner mentioned. “Whereas Rasmussen is sweet at each stopping house runs and towards left-handed bats, he’s pitching in a spring coaching park in Florida which tends to profit hitters. We set the road at +270 for Schwarber to hit a HR right now.”
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+425)
Guerrero obtained off to a sluggish begin from an influence standpoint after signing a $500 million extension simply earlier than the season began. Nonetheless, he is hit three of his 4 house runs in 2025 over his final 9 video games and he sees the ball effectively towards Angels lefty Tyler Anderson. Guerrero is 6-for-11 in his profession off Anderson.
“Tyler Anderson has solely allowed 10 ER all season, however he has allowed six house runs. Anderson is a pitch to contact hitter, and he is susceptible to sometimes surrender some loud contact,” Fetner mentioned. “We set the road at +350 for Guerrero to hit a HR right now.” FanDuel has this priced at +420 for our MLB HR parlay, however DraftKings is definitely providing the very best worth right here.
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres (+310)
One other son of an enormous leaguer, Tatis is within the early NL MVP dialog after ending prime 5 within the voting in 2020 and 2021. He is slashing .317/.387/.556 with eight house runs, 18 RBI and eight stolen bases. Tatis has a juicy matchup on Tuesday towards Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt, who has given up three house runs in his final two begins. The mannequin units its line at +280 for Tatis to go yard right now and it is FanDuel with the very best worth right here.
“Tatis is hitting .371 with all 8 of his HRs towards RHPs this season regardless of being a right-handed hitter,” Fetner mentioned. “Tatis is dealing with Clarke Schmidt who simply had his begin pushed again as he’s coping with an harm. In accordance with baseball savant, Schmidt ranks in simply the sixth percentile in fastball run worth, whereas Tatis destroys fastballs. If he can get into fastball counts towards Schmidt, Tatis has a primary alternative to go yard right now.”
Extra MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve got seen the mannequin’s MLB HR prop picks for a number of gamers on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for each participant prop at SportsLine.
Want extra from SportsLine? See right now’s finest MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who’s on a 90-48 roll on baseball picks. Nonetheless craving extra? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 14-7 over his final 12 MLB cash line picks, and he already has locked in a decide for Tuesday.
