There are three gamers tied for the MLB lead in house runs (12) this season, however solely Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is in motion in the course of the Thursday MLB schedule. Schwarber has homered in three of his final 5 video games and is coming off back-to-back multi-hit performances. He’ll face Rays beginning pitcher Ryan Pepiot, who has already allowed eight homers this season. Schwarber is +230 to go yard within the newest MLB house run odds at Caesars Sportsbook for Thursday.
Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani (+187) is the one participant with shorter house run odds than Schwarber on Thursday. Which gamers must you again together with your Thursday MLB house run bets? Even With MLB props accessible for nearly each participant in each sport at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s confirmed pc mannequin may help you discover worth so as to add to your MLB house run picks.
The mannequin simulates each sport 10,000 instances and is on a 10-5 roll on all top-rated MLB money-line picks for the reason that begin of the season. The mannequin has hit at the least one MLB house run prop in 4 of the final six days and is up 31.55 items on its MLB HR picks over the last 30 days. Now, the mannequin and SportsLine’s crew of Knowledge Scientists have revealed their projections for among the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. These three picks may also be parlayed for +10250 odds and would pay out $512.50 on a $5 guess at FanDuel.
Austin Riley, Braves (+350)
Riley has been one of many league’s premier energy hitters for a number of years, hitting 30-plus homers in three of the final 4 seasons. He’s on tempo to hit that quantity once more this season, as he has eight house runs after going yard twice towards the Dodgers on Sunday. Riley has a .966 OPS at house and only a .695 OPS on the highway, so he can be blissful to be at Truist Park on Thursday. He’s dealing with Reds beginning pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has given up 40 of 41 profession homers to right-handed batters.
“This can be a favorable matchup for Riley and whenever you issue within the climate which is meant to be hitter pleasant, something above +300 is an efficient value for Riley to hit a HR tonight,” SportsLine knowledge analyst Jacob Fetner stated. FanDuel is providing the most effective Austin Riley house run odds, and you’ll rise up to $200 in bonus bets with a $5 successful guess right here.
Bryce Harper, Phillies (+400)
Harper is one other Nationwide League East hitter who has persistently been hitting bombs in his profession, and he simply hit his sixth of the season on Sunday towards Arizona. The 32-year-old is dealing with Pepiot, who has gone two straight begins with out permitting a homer. Nevertheless, he gave up seven in his three begins earlier than that, which all got here on the Rays’ short-term park.
“Bryce Harper has at all times hit the ball effectively towards right-handed pitchers, and whereas Pepiot is definitely higher towards left-handed bats as a result of his offspeed pitches play a lot better than his fastball, that is nonetheless matchup for Harper who raked towards change-ups final season,” Fetner stated. The mannequin units Harper’s line at +350, so that you’re getting worth right here with FanDuel providing +400.
Anthony Santander, Blue Jays (+400)
Santander homered on Tuesday towards the Angels, giving him 5 lengthy balls this season. He’s solely batting .188, however he has 5 hits in his final 4 video games. The 30-year-old crushed 44 homers in 2024, and all 5 of his homers this season have come towards right-handed pitchers. This line can be a lot shorter final yr, so the information crew thinks this is a great spot to leap on board earlier than his quantity shortens. “We’d set the road at round +380, however whenever you issue within the climate being hitter pleasant, there may be possible much more worth,” Fetner stated.
The mannequin sees fare worth at this value, which you’ll find at BetMGM Sportsbook. You may also rating as much as $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM in case your first guess loses right here.
Extra MLB picks for Thursday
You have seen the mannequin’s MLB HR prop picks for a number of gamers on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for each participant prop at SportsLine.
Want extra from SportsLine? See as we speak’s greatest MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who’s on a 93-48 roll on baseball picks. Nonetheless craving extra? SportsLine’s Jason La Canfora is 10-5 over his final 15 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a choose for Thursday.
