The Houston Astros misplaced to the Seattle Mariners on Friday night time within the second sport of an enormous weekend sequence between the highest two groups within the American League West. The Astros, who received the sequence opener on Thursday, at the moment are 3 ½ video games again of Seattle. In different phrases, the Mariners will enter the brand new week in first place it doesn’t matter what occurs on the sphere the remainder of this sequence.

It is becoming that these groups are competing on Memorial Day weekend, that point of the yr when disciplined observers start to concentrate to the standings. The season is roughly a 3rd of the best way full, making it harder to categorize sustained play (of the great or unhealthy selection) as an phantasm borne from small samples. That sense of authenticity extends to particular person gamers, too, making for an attention-grabbing dynamic in relation to a crew like these Astros.

As famous above, the Astros are within the midst of yet one more aggressive season. Along with possessing the second greatest document within the AL West (a adequate mark that they might qualify for the postseason if this stuff had been determined in late Might), they’ve the sixth highest run differential amongst AL groups, with a plus-21 margin. Take a look at the Astros’ lineup on any given night time, nonetheless, and also you may be stunned by what number of essential veterans are underperforming.

On Friday, the guts of the Astros’ order included left fielder Jose Altuve, catcher Yainer Diaz, and first baseman Christian Walker. In principle, that is a advantageous spine of an offense. In observe, although, every of the three has an OPS a minimum of 100 factors inferior to their 2024 mark. Once more, the season is way sufficient alongside that it is time to ask: Ought to the Astros be involved? 

Moderately than simply asking the query, I’ve tried to reply it beneath with respect to these three notable Astros.

1. Jose Altuve, LF

It was once an accepted rule of thumb inside sabermetric circles that second basemen grew to become crater dangers as soon as they entered their mid-30s. Individuals do not consider that a lot anymore, nevertheless it does make for a handy setup to a joke about how the Astros should’ve moved Altuve to left discipline this spring after noticing he was nearing his thirty fifth birthday — that means, you already know, the governing rules of the game would spare him on a technicality. Sadly, it hasn’t labored.

Altuve entered Saturday hitting .253/.303/.376 with six residence runs and 4 stolen bases. His 92 OPS+ would characterize the second-worst full-season mark of his profession, forward of solely his exhibiting in 2013. Provided that he is now a most-days left fielder, and never a very efficient one, it is honest to have some considerations about his general contributions in what’s the first yr of his contract extension that runs by 2029.

Altuve has recorded a number of hits in three of his previous 4 video games, suggesting that he may be within the strategy of correcting course. Nonetheless, his efficiency this season comprises just a few items of worrying data. Most pertinently, he is hitting the ball on the excessive ends of the spectrum extra typically, leading to a career-low share of batted balls between 10 and 30 levels. The worst-case situation right here is that the previous statistic captures a decline in his bat-to-ball expertise — not in how typically he connects (he stays succesful in that regard), however in his skill to search out the barrel.

Why does that matter? As a result of it threatens Altuve’s capability to be a well-above-average hitter. His barrel management has all the time helped him overcome lackluster exit velocities and bat pace. That trait has manifested each in his hitting line drives and in his pulling balls within the air and profiting from Houston’s beneficiant ballpark construction. It is notable, then, that Altuve is pulling fewer balls within the air and is as an alternative hitting a career-high share of pulled floor balls.

In the end, it is to be seen if these statistics are certainly proof of talent decay. Given Altuve’s age, there absolutely needs to be some decline at play. Whereas his willingness to take up left discipline at this stage in his profession speaks to his work ethic and selflessness, I do discover myself involved that this can be nearer to his new regular than the spectacular marks he produced over the past three seasons (143 OPS+). If that’s the case, it’s going to be attention-grabbing to observe if, when, and the way supervisor Joe Espada strikes Altuve round within the order. 

2. Christian Walker, 1B

It was greater than a bit of humorous that the Astros, recent off the José Abreu debacle that noticed them bail within the second of a three-year settlement, determined one of the best ways to improve at first base was … to signal one other getting old right-handed first baseman to a three-year pact. Walker, who was phenomenal over the previous couple of seasons with the Diamondbacks, entered Saturday batting simply .196/.263/.328. For these questioning, Walker’s 67 OPS+ is worse even than Abreu’s Houston profession mark (73).

That scary notice apart, Walker’s underlying measures are considerably higher than his topline outcomes. His hard-hit share would characterize his second greatest determine over the past 5 years, and he is truly hitting extra balls inside that 10 to 30 diploma window than beforehand. His barrel price, mainly a combo of these metrics, can also be according to the place it resided earlier than final season. 

What about Walker’s elevated strikeout price, from 24.1% to 27.3%? Properly, what about it? His contact charges (in zone and general) are nearly similar to final yr. He’s chasing extra exterior of the zone (and swinging extra generally), however to not ranges that alarm me. As bizarre as this can be to learn, given his abysmal topline numbers, I am not discovering a ton of underlying purpose for concern.

Despite the fact that I had my reservations in regards to the Walker signing within the first place, I believe that he is certain to get going before later and separate himself from the Abreu comparisons. 

3. Yainer Diaz, C

Diaz is, by far, the youngest participant coated on this piece. He will not have a good time his twenty seventh birthday till September, making it simpler to examine him rebounding to his previous heights (he had a 121 OPS+ over his first two seasons within the majors, versus a 75 mark in 2025) on that truth alone. It is not simply his youth, both. It appears clear to me that his season could be attributed to an method change that hasn’t clicked. 

To those eyes, it seems that Diaz has been instructed (by the Astros or his personal needs) to carry and pull the ball extra often. That entails, amongst different issues, assembly the ball additional out in entrance of the plate. Maybe the concept was to get his energy ranges again to 2023, when he homered 23 occasions and slugged .538. Alas, his ISO stays according to his 2024 determine, all of the whereas his batting common has collapsed. He is by no means been one to take a stroll, leaving him in a bind offensively.

The attention-grabbing (and inspiring) side of Diaz’s season is that lots of his ball-tracking metrics are largely according to how he is carried out up to now. Have a look:

There are some discrepancies, too. For instance, Diaz’s common exit velocity belies that he is hitting a fewer share of his balls over 95 mph. I am not going to faux all the things has been advantageous and dandy. It is theoretically potential that he finally ends up having to revert to his outdated method, that or endure by extra of a studying curve as he tries to make this one work for him. Someway, I do anticipate Diaz getting issues sorted out and elevating his degree of play over the summer time.