The Los Angeles Dodgers will deliver within the new Main League Baseball season on Wednesday morning once they open a two-game set towards the San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea. Each contests will likely be held on the Gocheok Sky Dome, the host venue for the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Group. This may characterize the primary time in historical past MLB video games have been performed in South Korea.

The Dodgers are a becoming selection to steer off the 12 months, as no staff enters the 12 months with extra hype or potential. Credit score the Dodgers’ buzz to an offseason that noticed them signal Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto – a pair that may be interchangeably described because the winter’s prime two free brokers and one of the best hitter and pitcher accessible – whereas additionally acquiring right-hander Tyler Glasnow, left-hander James Paxton, and outfielder Teoscar Hernández, amongst different notable veterans.

To assume, these stars be a part of a roster that already employed former Most Worthwhile Participant Award winners Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and likewise gained 100 video games final 12 months for the sixth time prior to now seven full-length seasons. So accustomed to successful are these Dodgers that any accomplishment in need of a wins report or World Sequence title is met with a yawn – or, extra probably, requires the staff to fireplace supervisor Dave Roberts. 

Simply how good are the Dodgers alleged to be this season? Very, in accordance with the varied forecast fashions. SportsLine has them down for 103 wins, whereas Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA mannequin says 101 and FanGraphs’ ZiPS system represents the low vote at 93. (To be truthful, that, in ZiPS’ eyes, is sweet for the second finest report in MLB behind the Atlanta Braves.) Fairly than reaffirm as soon as extra that these Dodgers are more likely to be superb, we determined to conduct a thought experiment by asking ourselves: what wouldn’t it take for the Dodgers to overlook the playoffs for the primary time since 2012?

Under, we have recognized 5 threat components – all reasonable, if not possible or probably – that, in the event that they occurred, might derail the hype practice that’s the 2024 Dodgers.

1. The rotation is compromised

We are able to all however assure that the Dodgers are going to expertise turbulence with their rotation. Honestly, it is already occurring. They’ll enter the season with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Emmet Sheehan accessible to pitch, and that is simply the beginning of it. They will even be with out Dustin Might, Tony Gonsolin, and prime prospect Nick Frasso, who will miss the season after present process shoulder surgical procedure.

All these absences will go away the Dodgers with a beginning 5 that features Glasnow, Yamamoto, Paxton, and second-year righty Bobby Miller. (Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are in a contest for the fifth and last spot within the rotation.) You do not have to work arduous to identify the draw back potential with that group.

Yamamoto is probably the most achieved pitcher on the earth to not but pitch in a MLB common season sport. He gained three consecutive MVP and Cy Younger equal Awards to shut out his Nippon Skilled Baseball profession, and there is each purpose to imagine he’ll have the ability to stand out in MLB. Nonetheless, it will be comprehensible if he experiences some pains all through his first season: not solely does MLB use a unique ball than NPB, but it surely additionally employs a pitch clock and a tighter schedule. Apart from, Yamamoto is a human being, and it is comprehensible if he takes time to settle into a brand new nation.

Glasnow and Paxton have had their justifiable share of success within the majors, however each really feel riskier than the common bear from a well being perspective. To wit, Glasnow has averaged 72 innings during the last three seasons; Paxton, in the meantime, has thrown 117 innings for the reason that begin of the 2020 marketing campaign … with 96 of these coming in 2023.

Then there’s Miller, who set a career-high in innings with 138 between the majors and the minors. It stands to purpose the Dodgers will wish to be conservative together with his workload, that means that he is most likely due for a gradual improve in innings pitched. That, plus the need to ease Yamamoto into an MLB schedule, might compel the Dodgers to show to a six-pitcher rotation at instances to maintain issues churning.

As such, it is simpler to examine a state of affairs the place the Dodgers are digging into their depth early and sometimes. Los Angeles does have an unimaginable variety of intriguing younger arms on the best way – preserve the names Kyle Harm and River Ryan in thoughts – however there is not any assure these prospects will excel straight away. Simply final 12 months, the aforementioned Grove, Stone, and Sheehan mixed for a 6.19 ERA in 161 innings pitched.

After all, we all know that if the Dodgers rotation did expertise their absolute worst-case final result, the entrance workplace would probably simply commerce for reinforcements on the deadline. That is why we’re itemizing it as certainly one of a number of threat components.

2. Excessive-leverage hijinx

Too usually, we view the pitching workers as two separate parts: the rotation and the bullpen. It is a smart distinction due to the completely different roles and expectations, but it surely misses the cascading impact at play – notably at the present time, when groups now not count on their starters to reliably work deep into video games.

If the rotation proves unfit to hold a heavy load, that would put extra stress on the Dodgers bullpen, which might result in some underperformance from the aid corps. The best means for a staff to put up a poorer report than anticipated is to play poorly in late-and-close and one-run conditions. Simply ask the 2023 Padres about that. (San Diego went 9-23 in one-run video games and 2-12 in extra-inning contests en path to a disappointing 82-80 mark.)

The Dodgers have confirmed to be nice at discovering helpful bullpen arms once they want them, however we are going to level out that they’ve a good quantity of arms with error bars. What occurs if Joe Kelly reverts to his White Sox kind? Or if Ryan Brasier pitches extra like he did with the Crimson Sox? Or if Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, and J.P. Feyereisen harm themselves once more? As with the rotation, it is all concerning the sequencing and severity. A number of the above is more likely to cross. All of it, directly? Not as a lot. 

Absolutely the doomsday state of affairs, the place the rotation and bullpen each expertise their well being and efficiency woes concurrently, is distant however not unimaginable. The snag is, but once more, that the Dodgers would absolutely transfer on and discover a repair to their aid points.

 Talking of which, let’s transfer on to the subsequent part.  

3. Damage bug disrupts

We’re keen on declaring that participant well being is the nice unknown for public evaluation. We can not determine who will (or will not) get harm in any given season with confidence. That is unlucky as a result of seasons are sometimes determined by that invisible power. 

An apparent threat issue to those Dodgers, then, is that if the harm bug took up residence of their clubhouse, sidelining quite a few gamers for numerous lengths of time. 

We hope you agree that is a good remark to make. Alas, we should concede that the Dodgers have established a precedent the place they’re in a position to overcome mass accidents. Final season, they recorded the second most days missed due to harm within the majors – behind solely the Los Angeles Angels – they usually nonetheless gained 100 video games. 

We are going to be aware that the who issues in these instances. Your fifth reliever lacking 15 days counts the identical as your beginning catcher, however one has a higher impression on wins and losses. These Dodgers are absurdly deep, although, to the extent that the harm bug must impression a number of prime performers to wreak carnage. Ben Clemens, a must-read writer at FanGraphs, just lately revealed that Los Angeles could be projected to complete at .500 even when their 4 finest gamers had been faraway from the roster. 

Maybe it is value viewing that discovering from a unique angle.

4. Stars scuffle

Perhaps a extra imposing threat issue for the Dodgers is not their prime stars – Ohtani, Betts, Freeman included – lacking time due to harm. Perhaps it is them collectively having down years. In any case, when a star participant is harm, they’re changed within the lineup by a participant who has an opportunity to be efficient; when a star participant is slumping, the staff is unlikely to bench them. That may find yourself being a drag on the lineup if the spiels stack.

There’s no purpose to assume that the aforementioned trio will wrestle, and there particularly is not any purpose to assume all three will achieve this for extended stretches. This complete piece is a thought experiment, nonetheless, so let’s proceed to play satan’s advocate whereas acknowledging that generally nice gamers have spotty years.  

So, say Ohtani has hassle discovering his rhythm with out pitching (he didn’t expertise that challenge final time he could not pitch); say Betts has a displaying like 2017 (nonetheless good), and say Freeman begins to point out the indicators of damage and tear that come from being 34 and reliably taking part in nearly each single sport (he is missed a complete of 11 video games in six seasons). Below such a state of affairs, the Dodgers would obtain considerably worse manufacturing than they anticipated over the course of two,000 premium plate appearances. 

Shy of the MVP Three fully cratering, some collective underperformance would haven’t any probability of sinking the Dodgers by itself. However it might do some harm if paired with a couple of of those different threat components.

5. Sudden ascents

The Dodgers have not simply been a continuing presence within the playoffs since 2013, they have been the kings of the Nationwide League West. For this threat issue, we’re considering again to the 2021 season, the one time they’ve fallen in need of a division crown in 11 years. That was the 12 months that the San Francisco Giants shockingly gained the West and 107 video games.

Do we predict any of the Dodgers’ NL West foes are more likely to have the same 12 months? No, although we actually assume the playoffs are attainable for the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Giants. However that is the purpose, proper? Nobody anticipated the 2021 Giants to do what they did. Bizarre issues occur each night time and yearly in baseball. If a kind of West rivals had been to blaze the sector all summer season with surprising brilliance and seize the division, it will scale back the Dodgers’ playoff possibilities to an extent.

Granted, that risk could be magnified if the playoffs hadn’t been expanded in recent times. As it’s, the Dodgers must see a few of these different threat components come to fruition for them to be at severe threat of lacking out on October. And is not that the kicker of this complete train? Right here we’re, dreaming up an unhealthy cocktail of misgivings that will wreck most groups within the title of making an attempt to write down the Dodgers out of the postseason … and we nonetheless cannot persuade ourselves that it will be sufficient.

For those who ask us, that is likely to be one of the best praise you can provide these Dodgers: they appear so good and so deep on paper that it is arduous to determine how they may fail, even when approaching their season with pessimistic eyes.