You may know the story. Our hero, battered and bruised, on the cusp of defeat to the evil antagonist, can take no extra. With out the energy to combat on anymore his doom is imminent. Then comes their deus ex machina, the wizened mentor from earlier, prepared to carry the foe off on the previous. Our younger challenger escapes, prepared to finish his noble quest.

You possibly can think about David Moyes as Obi Wan Kenobi in some off Broadway stage manufacturing of Star Wars, cannot you? If not, maybe it is possible for you to to after Sunday. The outgoing West Ham supervisor is aware of there isn’t any combat left in him, however, if he can simply maintain out towards the would possibly of Manchester Metropolis, he should purchase time for his younger apprentice to finish his quest. In any case these physique blows he has taken at Metropolis’s arms over the 12 months, would possibly the final triumph be for Moyes and his protege Mikel Arteta?

It makes for an awesome story however in the actual world, nicely, it feels extra believable as a piece of fiction than reality. West Ham, with nothing to play for however the pleasure of their outgoing supervisor, have a horrendous report towards Metropolis. There’s a purpose why Moyes is leaving the membership he guided to European glory 12 months in the past. His staff has not been notably good this season, notably in latest months, when it turned obvious that the board’s willingness to maintain maintain of a person that had divided the opinion of the fanbase was swiftly ebbing away.

Since a backs to the wall win at Arsenal on December 28, West Ham have picked up simply 19 factors from 18 video games. The 41 targets they’ve conceded are greater than Burnley, the 36.7 anticipated targets (xG) they’ve given up, additionally greater than Burnley. Backside half underlying metrics for the reason that first half of the season have led to backside half ends in the second.

Nonetheless, Pep Guardiola sees trigger for nerves. His post-match press convention on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium noticed him refer again to the blown title that wasn’t towards Aston Villa on multiple event. “The sport can be fully related by way of emotion and all the pieces,” mentioned the Metropolis boss. His identification of West Ham’s nice strengths appears pretty much as good a place to begin as any for an examination on how West Ham would possibly reward the title to Arsenal.

West Ham’s useless ball masters

“Now it is [Mohamed] Kudus, [Jarrod] Bowen, [Michail] Antonio, [James] Ward-Prowse, [Tomas] Soucek,” mentioned Guardiola. “Set items. Channels.” Park the person expertise for a second and it’s the useless balls specifically that turn out to be intriguing. In any case, West Ham’s nice European odyssey was powered by them hitting corners and free kicks into the penalty space, the place Moyes males merely out-talled the opposition to move down with ease. Even within the land of the giants that’s the Premier League, West Ham stand tall.

Up to now this season, solely three groups have created extra xG from non-penalty set items than the Hammers 14.2. Free kicks are a selected energy for Moyes’ facet, marshalled as they’re by England’s most pinpoint proper foot since David Beckham, James Ward-Prowse. These with data of the set piece artwork have a tendency to emphasise that there’s extra to the 29 12 months outdated’s success than simply the various hours he places into his craft on the coaching floor. His ball-striking, the best way through which he naturally vegetation his toes: these are the innate instruments that allow him hit the ball with ferocity on his instep.

Concede a free kick within the channels and all you may actually do is hope that, in case your facet get a boot on a ball flying with monumental whip and tempo, it occurs to deflect to security. This supply towards Aston Villa in March, for example, prompted an outright panic that resulted within the ball bundled within the web solely to be dominated out for one thing that occurred within the rumble across the ball.

Ward-Prowse might not have scored from a free kick this season — although bending that nook in towards Wolves wasn’t too shabby in its place — however nobody is laying extra possibilities on for teammates. Kieran Trippier, Bruno Fernandes, Alfie Doughty and Martin Odeegard are second within the Premier League’s rankings for possibilities created from free kicks with 9. Ward-Prowse has 16. He has 1.62 anticipated assists from free kicks. Solely two different gamers within the prime flight have one. If Manchester Metropolis concede a free kick wherever within the last third, they are going to be beneath risk.

Most sides, together with Manchester Metropolis once they confronted West Ham in August, decide to defend Ward-Prowse’s deliveries with a defensive position parked on the sting of the penalty space. That may go some solution to limiting the direct risk of the primary ball into the field however the Hammers have the peak to win that and create knockdowns for others.

In true Moyesian style, there isn’t any complexity for complexities sake in how West Ham assault useless balls. They may make changes — take the draw with Tottenham earlier this 12 months the place Jarrod Bowen dropped supply after supply simply in entrance of the notoriously shaky Guglielmo Vicario — however for essentially the most half they profile as a staff who goal for the prime spot simply inside their six yard field and belief Kurt Zouma and Tomas Soucek to do the remainder.

That may work nicely towards Stefan Ortega, who will enter the Metropolis XI with Ederson sidelined because of a fractured eye socket. The German has confirmed himself to be probably the greatest backups within the Premier League this season, the hero of the hour when he blocked Heung-min Son to safe victory on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. However in a small pattern measurement of crosses confronted this season, Ortega does not profile as a springy, off his line cross-gatherer within the mildew of Emiliano Martinez and David Raya. He has dealt nicely with Ben White types blockers, however the punches with which he cleared crosses towards Actual Madrid and Crystal Palace weren’t essentially the most convincing. Past even that, Metropolis’s quantity two simply hasn’t run into that many sides who would actually look to monster him at set items. When he did face the type of likelihood that Zouma is so skilled at getting his head on, he was fortunate that Luton did not rating.

Ortega, will, nevertheless be protected by one of many Premier League’s finest set piece defenses. Metropolis have conceded simply two useless ball targets this season and a league finest 5.9 xG. It helps no finish when you will have sufficient of the ball that the Ward-Prowses and Fernandes would possibly solely get one or two set items to check out however watch again essentially the most harmful possibilities they’ve confronted and Metropolis have an awesome high quality for placing simply sufficient strain on the ball. Add in Ruben Dias’ willingness to hurl himself in entrance of something and you’ve got fairly an efficient useless ball protection.

This would possibly simply be one spot the place West Ham’s energy does not mix nicely with Manchester Metropolis’s defensive profile. That’s not fairly as true elsewhere, nevertheless.

Counter attacking risk

In case your imaginative and prescient for essentially the most Moyes period West Ham aim will not be Zouma or Soucek rising highest at a set piece, it is virtually actually Jarrod Bowen flying in behind the opposition protection. One on one with the goalkeeper he strikes residence, 5 minutes of Irons defending changed into a valuable aim within the blink of a watch. No facet within the Premier League betters West Ham’s 9 targets from counter assaults this season whereas solely Alexander Isak has greater than Bowen’s 4 targets from quick breaks.

That hefty return on the breakaway is typical of what this staff is nice at. In Moyes 4 full seasons on the membership he has three campaigns through which his facet rank within the total prime 10 for counterattacking targets and their whole tally of twenty-two is eclipsed solely by Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool.

Each this season, and over Moyes’ 4 years as an entire, there’s a case to be made that West Ham have simply had a little bit of a scorching streak in entrance of aim once they’re flying down the pitch. This season’s 9 targets got here from 6.6 xG, over the 4 years as an entire they’ve constructed 83 breakaways that resulted in pictures price 16.6 xG. A few of the overperformance could also be streakiness however when there are 4 years of knowledge to think about, one wonders if there’s extra at play. In any case, all through that point West Ham have had gamers who’re excellent at counterattacking soccer. Whether or not that be the muscularity of Antonio within the channels, the precision of Bowen’s left foot or the standard of service they get from Lucas Paquetta, this can be a staff constructed to get scorching on the break.

Will probably be developing towards one that isn’t fairly as efficient at snuffing out breakaways as could be thought. There are clear the explanation why Metropolis would possibly face a disproportionate variety of counters; when their construct up play is forcing each participant on the opposition into their very own third then loads of assaults Guardiola’s facet face are going to appear to be counters. This season these strikes have been getting by way of with a little bit extra regularity although. No staff within the Premier League has conceded extra breakaway targets than Metropolis’s eight. 

They’ve been undone by some fairly spectacular ending now and again — take Alexander Isak’s bending strike at St. James’ Park earlier this 12 months — however there are vulnerabilities to be probed when Metropolis concede possession, as Son proved on Tuesday evening. Rodri’s extra aggressive positioning within the final two seasons provides his facet actual alternatives to strangle assaults at supply however get away and Metropolis would possibly solely be a mistake away, notably now that they’re deploying extra up and down the flank full backs in Kyle Walker and Josko Gvardiol.

On this passage of play towards Crystal Palace above a unfastened giveaway by Stones is exacerbated by Gvardiol, so spectacular within the second half of the season, leaping out of the again three in an try and strain Jordan Ayew. The Palace No.9 lays the ball again to Adam Wharton, who has the standard to instantly spring Jean-Phillipe Mateta in behind. In Oliver Glasner’s Crystal Palace, which means one factor solely, a aim at Selhurst Park. 

A lot the identical occurred earlier within the marketing campaign on the London Stadium. Gvardiol acquired drawn out of the road, nutmegged by Bowen and Vladimir Coufal was launched in sufficient area that he may hold away from Jeremy Doku, search for and clip a cross to the again submit and Ward-Prowse.

The possibilities might be there for West Ham. Actually they’re showing with extra regularity than they had been in the beginning of what could be Metropolis’s fourpeat. In 2020-21 Guardiola’s facet gave up 13 pictures, 1.6 xG and one aim to groups on the counter. Final 12 months these numbers had been 25, 3.4 and three. Now there are fewer openings however good high quality ones with opponents turning 19 pictures and three.6 xG into eight breakaway targets. 

There you will have it, the exhaust port within the Demise Star, one primed to be punctured by a small raiding occasion of rebels. One final act by an outdated grasp of the Premier League could be all it takes to provide this season a exceptional ending.