There are a few things we know about the ongoing Damian Lillard trade negotiations:
- Lillard only wants to play for the Miami Heat.
- There are other teams that can offer more than the Heat.
- The Blazers are not satisfied with the Heat’s offers and are willing to wait for a better deal.
- Other teams have not made offers that surpass the Heat’s, potentially because Lillard is fixated on the Heat.
The first point is not in dispute. The second point is a consequence of the NBA’s current landscape, with some teams having control over multiple future draft picks and others having none. Eventually, teams with more assets will start trading for star players. The Heat are not asset-poor, but they are not as well-off as other teams.
The third point is where things get more complex. The fourth point will determine what Lillard gets traded for. There is likely a significant difference between what the Heat can offer and what they have offered so far. Superstars often have a say in where they are traded, so the Blazers would prefer an open bidding war. They are likely using other teams’ interest as leverage to get more from the Heat. The Heat may be willing to offer more than they have, but they need to consider how much they are willing to give up.
What do the Heat have to trade?
As of now, the Heat can trade two first-round picks and three first-round swaps within the next seven years. They have exceptions in 2025 and 2026, but they can offer swaps in 2024, 2027, and 2029, along with unprotected picks in 2028 and 2030. They can also potentially create another tradable pick by amending their owed pick to the Thunder, giving them more flexibility. As for players, they have nine players eligible for trades, with four of them being potential targets for the Blazers.
How valuable is Miami’s offer?
Reports suggest that the Blazers want four first-round picks and two quality players in a trade for Lillard. Miami’s all-in offer meets those requirements, but the reaction to it has been negative. The picks the Heat have are not low-quality picks, as the Heat have performed well in recent years and have even had high draft picks. The appeal of Miami’s package is subjective, and some teams may need to present a better offer with more valuable picks or an emerging young player to outbid the Heat.
Who can outbid the Heat?
It is challenging for other teams to outbid the Heat due to Lillard’s preferences and the current market for point guards. Many teams already have high-paid starters or developing point guards, ruling them out as potential suitors. The Lakers, Clippers, Bucks, and Suns may have been interested, but they lack tradeable draft assets. Teams in the lottery are not in a position to acquire Lillard. The Warriors and the Sixers could potentially make a trade, but it would require multiple steps and the involvement of other players.
The outcome of the negotiations will determine the type of trade that will follow. If the Blazers fold, the Heat’s offer may not be impressive. However, if the Heat give up most of their assets, the trade could be more favorable for the Blazers.
