The School Soccer Playoff will develop to function 12 groups this season. Whereas better entry for extra faculties brings with it the promise of a Cinderella story and surprising title chase, actuality will pour chilly water on these hopes most of the time. Reality is, whereas extra groups will attain the CFP, the eventual champions will come from a pool of acquainted applications. The parity we’re extra prone to see is the type that makes a dynasty just like the one underneath Nick Saban at Alabama or the burgeoning one underneath Kirby Good at Georgia tough to type.
If we’re in search of Cinderella on this new age, she’ll be discovered within the common season. She’ll be the group that exceeds preseason expectations to seize an at-large berth out of nowhere.
Because it’s June, and I felt a tinge of pleasure when the CFP introduced its broadcast schedule for 2024-25, I could not think about a greater time to determine the potential Cinderella tales for the upcoming season. I wished to search out the groups that, whether or not it’s the proper timing of a veteran roster, just a few breaks within the schedule or simply dumb luck, may very well be that group from every of the Energy 4 conferences. The one parameter I set for eligibility was that the group had a preseason win whole of seven.5 or decrease.
Loads of groups met the factors, however in the long run, these are the 4 I really feel not solely match the invoice of being thought-about a Cinderella in the event that they reached the CFP, but in addition have an opportunity to slip into that tumbler slipper.
ACC – Syracuse (Win whole: 7)
I thought-about Pitt as one other risk from the ACC. Whereas I’ve some trepidation about Syracuse in Fran Brown’s first season as a head coach at any degree, the whole lot else looks like an ideal match. The Orange are coming off a 6-7 season and have performed in a bowl recreation in every of the final two years. Whereas the Dino Babers period was up and down (10 wins in 2018, one in 2020), the group discovered a degree within the final three seasons, going 18-20. The hole between combating for bowls and a 10-win season worthy of an at-large is vast, however not practically as vast as it’s for groups coming off three- and four-win seasons.
Brown has injected a variety of power and pleasure into this system, which is nice, however he is additionally enhanced the expertise degree. Ohio State followers could have a variety of opinions on Kyle McCord, however there is no query he is an improve on the QB place in comparison with what Syracuse had final 12 months, significantly within the passing recreation. Garrett Shrader was helpful as a battering ram within the run recreation, however ‘Cuse completed thirteenth within the ACC final season in EPA per dropback, and its Whoopsy Daisy Price (fumbles and interceptions divided by dropbacks) of 4.61% was the worst within the ACC by a large margin.
Enter McCord, who is not going to be used within the run recreation as a lot however will not have to be. Oronde Gadsden can be a plus at tight finish, whereas newcomers like Justus Ross-Simmons and Zeed Haynes will spherical out a deeper receiver corps. Then there’s LeQuint Allen, who completed third amongst ACC working backs final season with 1,064 yards dashing. The offense is positioned to attain greater than the 23.5 factors per recreation they did final season.
Then there’s the schedule. Essentially the most tough video games seem like at NC State in mid-October and the regular-season finale at residence in opposition to Miami. Whereas there can be different tough video games (vs. Georgia Tech, at Pitt, and vs. Virginia Tech come to thoughts), there is no such thing as a Florida State or Clemson. Within the ACC, you can not ask for a friendlier schedule break than that.
It will likely be fascinating to observe the new-look Large Ten within the years to return. With 4 new applications of various ranges of success becoming a member of the league and the elimination of divisions, some applications have the possibility to enhance their station within the league, whereas others could discover themselves going the opposite route. 5 years from now, I do not know what the league will seem like (hell, it may need two extra faculties by then), however as for 2024, Rutgers strikes me as the varsity greatest positioned to make the most of the adjustments instantly.
The Greg Schiano Period Half 2 has been a sluggish, regular climb that noticed the Scarlet Knights make a bowl recreation final season attributable to profitable not less than six video games for the primary time since 2014. Their win whole of six this season suggests they’re anticipated to return to the postseason, and maybe they will do one thing they’ve but to do underneath Schiano: put up a profitable convention file. Switch WR Dymere Miller may very well be the dynamic playmaker this offense has lacked within the passing recreation, and whereas I am not particularly excessive on new beginning QB Athan Kaliakmanis, he must be an enchancment over Gavin Wimsatt within the passing recreation. Contemplating Rutgers completed close to the underside of the Large Ten in practically each passing class that issues, it would be onerous to worsen. (2023 Iowa did exist, so it’s potential.)
Like Syracuse, the largest enhance may very well be the schedule. The nonconference encompasses a robust journey to Virginia Tech, and the Knights can be on the highway in opposition to Nebraska and USC. Additionally they must cope with Washington and Wisconsin in New Jersey. However you recognize who they do not must cope with anyplace? The three groups which have stomped on their heads yearly since Rutgers joined the Large Ten: Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Rutgers additionally avoids Oregon, which I argue is the strongest of the 4 Large Ten newcomers in 2024. It isn’t loopy to imagine that Rutgers may very well be the 2024 model of what Iowa has been within the Large Ten. Ugly wins are wins all the identical.
Talking of the Hawkeye State, how about that different power-conference group in Iowa? Looking for a Cinderella within the Large 12 is not simple. Not as a result of there aren’t groups able to doing it, however since you might realistically listing your complete league. Saturdays this fall within the Large 12 can be stuffed with coin-flip video games, and I will not be shocked if Iowa State finally ends up on the profitable aspect of loads of them.
To begin with, it isn’t like it will be something new for the Cyclones to shock individuals. Issues have tapered off a bit in latest seasons, nevertheless it was just a few years in the past when Iowa State went 9-3 and reached as excessive as No. 6 within the CFP Rankings, ending the season at No. 10. That season, Brock Purdy and Breece Corridor lead the Cyclones to a Fiesta Bowl. In the event you squint a little bit bit, Rocco Becht and Abu Sama seem like they could be a comparable mixture.
Becht flew underneath the radar as a freshman final season, and whereas we have seen gamers regress of their sophomore seasons loads of instances earlier than, I like Becht’s possibilities to take care of a degree of play that noticed Iowa State rank fourth within the Large 12 in EPA per dropback final season — at a minimal. Moreover, this can be a group that returns a variety of its key contributors from final season, which might present an edge in a league the place the highest and backside aren’t separated by loads.
If there is a concern, it is the schedule. Not solely is there the highway journey to Iowa in Week 2, however the Cyclones can be on the highway for giant video games in opposition to Kansas and Utah in November earlier than ending the common season with Kansas State the week after the Utes. That is a tough residence stretch.
I will get this out of the way in which proper now: primarily based on my standards for choosing a Cinderella, I really feel secure saying there is not going to be a Cinderella at-large out of the SEC this season. The league is just too deep on the prime. Whereas I’ve chosen Auburn for this venture, the reality is 9 different groups within the league have a greater shot at making the playoff than the Tigers. Nevertheless it’s not unimaginable! Auburn has been a chaos agent for some time, and it is gained a nationwide title and performed for one more within the final 15 years.
Plus, it is a gifted group. The Tigers haven’t got the depth of expertise others within the SEC have, but when they get fortunate with accidents, they’ve sufficient to compete with nearly anyone they’re going to face through the common season. I am not overly excessive on Payton Thorne — Auburn’s passing assault was fairly dangerous final 12 months — however I’ve realized over time to present coach Hugh Freeze the good thing about the doubt together with his QBs. He does job of wringing each ounce of capacity out of them.
In the end, the remainder of the league and the schedule will doubtless preserve the Tigers from reaching their Cinderella potential. They’re on the highway for each Georgia and Alabama this season, plus Missouri and Kentucky. Toss in some residence dates with Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and possibly they might squeeze into the CFP with a 9-3 file, nevertheless it will not be simple.
