Just a few weeks in the past, I locked myself in my movie cave and meticulously analyzed each snap of coaches’ movie to judge the six quarterbacks stepping in to interchange the outgoing 2024 first-round picks from the 2024 NFL Draft. Some took a very long time (new Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel), whereas others, because of a smaller pattern dimension, had been a lot shorter, although no much less attention-grabbing (Michigan’s Alex Orji). These detailed notes had been revealed this week on 247Sports.
Our projections for these quarterbacks differ extensively. Beneath, we have distilled the scouting studies into shorter write-ups, rating every of the six quarterbacks by probability of efficiently changing their first-round predecessor, primarily based not solely on the quarterback’s personal bodily expertise but in addition the supporting solid round them.
Arrange for main success
1. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
Changing: Bo Nix (No. 12 total, Denver Broncos)
Dillon Gabriel, in what looks like his tenth yr of faculty, brings in depth expertise and execution of a tempo-based offense to a loaded Oregon workforce anticipated to make a deep playoff run (Gabriel has 49 begins, practically 15,000 passing yards and 125 landing passes to his title).
Gabriel had his greatest season final yr in Norman, scoring 12 touchdowns on the bottom and making crucial performs to maneuver the chains. Gabriel excels in a tempo and RPO-based offense, delivering the ball on time with a reside arm that may dissect defenses. He reads defenses effectively, finds inexperienced grass for straightforward completions, and capitalizes on man-to-man matchups for explosive performs. His capability to increase performs and navigate the pocket, whether or not together with his arm or legs, is a standout trait. Regardless of sometimes lacking crossers and deep throws, Gabriel is poised to be one of many high quarterbacks within the nation.
His adaptation to Will Stein’s offense and comparability to Bo Nix’s efficiency 2023 Heisman Finalist season can be attention-grabbing to look at. Count on an enormous season from Gabriel, together with his efficiency towards Ohio State early on doubtlessly influencing the 2024’s Heisman dialog.
2. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Changing: Jayden Daniels (No. 2 total, Washington Commanders)
Garrett Nussmeier lastly takes the helm at LSU after backing up All-American and Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. Identified for his wonderful arm and soccer IQ, he’s poised for a breakout season behind one of many high offensive traces and a proficient receiving corps. In restricted motion final season, he shone in his begin towards Wisconsin within the ReliaQuest Bowl, throwing for 410 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Nussmeier performs with a gunslinger mentality, confidently threading tight-window throws throughout his physique. He has a fast launch and delivers correct passes when his ft are set, although his accuracy can endure beneath strain. LSU has a good schedule early on, which can give Nussmeier time to get tremendous snug. He could possibly be a first-round draft decide come 2025.
The wildcards
3. Miller Moss, USC
Changing: Caleb Williams (No. 1 total, Chicago Bears)
Miller Moss gained invaluable expertise final yr as a backup to first total decide Caleb Williams, culminating in a stellar efficiency in his sole begin on the Vacation Bowl, the place he threw for 377 yards and 6 touchdowns. His calm and picked up demeanor in that sport boosted his confidence and earned the belief of his teammates and coaches.
USC hit the switch portal for a backup in Jayden Maiava, however Moss’ bowl sport efficiency satisfied Lincoln Riley he did not must seize a starter. We might see a reasonably good season right here in Los Angeles, if Moss’ offensive line holds up. The large receiver room can be fairly good and USC mustn’t need to play in as many shootouts.
Moss has a great arm and accuracy however typically locks onto his major goal with out progressing by means of his reads, which was evident in his restricted motion and led to turnovers towards Louisville. This season, Moss wants to enhance his capability to make use of his eyes to maneuver defenders and undergo progressions to keep away from ball-hawking defenders. His success will depend upon his capability to make these changes and make the most of simple completions to backs.
4. Max Johnson, North Carolina
Changing: Drake Maye (No. 3 total, New England Patriots)
Max Johnson, an skilled southpaw, is ready to fill in for Drake Maye at North Carolina. With 20 begins at LSU and Texas A&M, he has thrown for over 5,800 yards, 47 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Johnson delivers correct, well timed passes to all ranges of the sector, excelling briefly to intermediate throws. His excessive soccer IQ and pedigree are evident in his capability to learn defenses. He exhibits surprisingly nimble dimension at 6-foot-5 and who could make performs together with his ft.
Johnson throws effectively on the transfer and makes good choices beneath strain, delivering strikes over the center and taking hits when vital. Nevertheless, his common launch time and inconsistent pocket presence can hinder his efficiency — he typically drifts too deep or laterally, which complicates safety for the offensive line.
General, I’d be shocked if Moss was greater than fairly common. North Carolina is probably going going to battle in 2024 and the crystal ball says coach Mack Brown calls it a profession after the season.
We might see them getting benched
5. Will Rogers, Washinton
Changing: Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 total, Atlanta Falcons)
Will Rogers struggled final yr as Mississippi State’s navigated to a pro-style system. Now at Washington, he faces, effectively, the problem of mastering Jedd Fisch’s pro-style offense and adapting to NFL terminology whereas changing Michael Penix Jr. and far of the 2023 Washington offense.
Sure, Rogers brings a powerful resume to the Pacific Northwest, together with beginning 40 video games and holding the SEC document for profession completions. His strengths lie in his capability to course of defenses shortly, transfer by means of his progressions, and decrease turnovers, as evidenced by his low interception price even in a down yr. Nevertheless, his arm power is common, excelling briefly to intermediate throws, and he confirmed a big drop in accuracy final season, finishing solely 60% of his passes in comparison with 70% in earlier years. How does that bode on the street within the Midwest and at residence within the Seattle mist?
If Fisch can restore his confidence, Rogers might enhance, however Washington’s potential expertise deficit and his personal limitations could result in a disappointing season and presumably dropping the beginning job to a youthful, extra athletic quarterback in true freshman Demond Williams if Fisch decides to play for 2025.
6. Alex Orji, Michigan
Changing: JJ McCarthy (No. 10 total, Minnesota Vikings)
Alex Orji is probably the most unpredictable quarterback prospect of the six, with spectacular dimension and athletic capability hinting at how Sherrone Moore may run Michigan’s offense in 2024. Regardless of restricted taking part in time — 17 snaps final season and solely eight in 2022 with only one go try — Orji showcased his bodily working capability as a change of tempo in Michigan’s ground-and-pound offense. As a dynamic athlete, he excels with the ball in his arms, however defenses will anticipate this and cargo the field to cease the run.
Though Michigan’s coaches are assured in his working abilities, his passing capability stays largely untested. Former coach Jim Harbaugh praised Orji’s arm expertise, noting his highschool stats of over 2,000 passing yards, a 51% completion price, 28 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Michigan is anticipated to make use of heavy formations to emphasise the run, as Orji’s passing capabilities are nonetheless unknown exterior the workforce.
He could both proceed in his situational position from final yr or be surpassed by a extra conventional passer.
