Hockey is a sport with a lot of variability, and over an 82-game season, luck can play a big role in a team’s success. However, statistical regression tends to even things out over time.
A prime example of this is the 2022-23 Boston Bruins. They had an incredible season, with players like Linus Ullmark and David Pastrnak performing at their best. However, it is unlikely that they will have the same level of success this year.
On the other hand, the Calgary Flames had a solid season in 2022-23 but missed the playoffs. They have the potential to improve this year and surprise some people.
As we approach the 2023-24 season, let’s take a closer look at the teams and players that could experience regression.
Teams
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Boston Bruins
The Bruins had an exceptional season last year, especially in terms of their performance at five-on-five. They had the highest save percentage and second-highest shooting percentage in the league. However, it will be challenging for them to maintain that level of success this year.
Players like David Pastrnak had a career year with 61 goals, but it’s unlikely that he can replicate that performance. Additionally, goaltender Linus Ullmark had an outstanding season and won the Vezina Trophy, but it may be difficult for him to maintain that level of play consistently.
The retirement of Patrice Bergeron, one of the best defensive forwards in the game, will also have a significant impact on the team’s defensive strength.
With the loss of key players like Bergeron, David Krejci, and Taylor Hall, the Bruins will need others to step up on offense. This season will be more challenging for them, and they may not dominate the Atlantic Division as they did last year.
Calgary Flames
Unlike the Bruins, the Flames had a solid underlying performance last year but struggled to convert that into wins. They had poor luck in terms of shooting and save percentages, which affected their ability to score goals and prevent them.
Goaltender Jacob Markstrom had a disastrous season, but if he can bounce back, the Flames have a good chance of making the playoffs this year. The team also has talented young forwards who could help improve their offensive production.
Last year was a disappointing one for the Flames, but they have the potential to bounce back and surprise people in the 2023-24 season.
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Seattle Kraken
The Kraken had an impressive inaugural season, making it to the playoffs and even defeating the defending champions. However, they had a high shooting percentage, which might be difficult to sustain. Their goaltending also had some struggles, and it remains to be seen if they can improve in that area.
While the addition of players like Matty Beniers and a healthy Andre Burakovsky could boost the team’s offense, the Kraken still have some questions to address. They will face tough competition in the Pacific Division, which could make it challenging for them to repeat their success from last year.
Los Angeles Kings
The Kings had a strong season last year but fell short in the playoffs. They had good underlying numbers but struggled to convert that into goals. The goaltending was a weak point for them, but they have made some changes to address that issue.
With the addition of Pierre-Luc Dubois and strong veteran talent, the Kings have the potential to build on last year’s success and compete with top teams like the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference.
Players
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | C | Edmonton Oilers
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a breakout season last year, surpassing his previous career highs in goals and points. However, it will be challenging for him to maintain that level of production in the upcoming season. The Oilers had an exceptional offense last year, but it’s unlikely that Nugent-Hopkins will reach the 100-point mark again.
If Nugent-Hopkins can continue to perform well on the power play, he could still have a strong season. However, his overall numbers are expected to regress.
Johnny Gaudreau | LW | Columbus Blue Jackets
Johnny Gaudreau had a slightly disappointing season last year after signing a big contract with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He still had a solid season, but it will be challenging for him to replicate his previous career-high numbers.
Gaudreau’s shooting percentage was lower than his career average, which affected his goal-scoring. However, if the Blue Jackets’ young forwards continue to develop, Gaudreau could have a better season this year.
Josh Morrissey | D | Winnipeg Jets
Josh Morrissey had a breakout offensive season last year, setting new career highs in goals, assists, and points. However, it is unlikely that he will be able to maintain that level of production consistently. His shooting percentage was higher than his career average, and it’s challenging for defensemen to maintain such high offensive numbers.
Despite this regression, Morrissey can still be a valuable player for the Winnipeg Jets, especially on the power play.
MacKenzie Weegar | D | Calgary Flames
Mackenzie Weegar had a solid season with the Calgary Flames last year, despite the team’s disappointing performance. His offensive numbers may not have been impressive, but his underlying performance and contributions to the team were valuable.
Weegar had a low shooting percentage, which affected his goal-scoring. However, considering his overall play, he is expected to continue performing well in the upcoming season, especially as a top-pairing defenseman.
