The NBA season is just a week old, and there’s already been no shortage of drama and storylines. James Harden finally got his wish to be traded to the Clippers, Victor Wembanyama made his highly anticipated debut and we’ve already got several players sitting out of games for “rest”. It’s like the NBA never left.
It’s still too early to make grand proclamations about most teams and players, but one thing is for certain, the Denver Nuggets look like a legit threat to repeat as champions. The Celtics also look like they may coast through the Eastern Conference. But let me not get too ahead of myself, with the first week in the books, let’s break down what we saw from all the action around the league and determine if it’s fact or fiction.
James Harden significantly improves the Clippers title odds
Fact or fiction: Fiction
It’s no secret what Harden will give the Clippers on offense. He’s an automatic scorer who can get to the free-throw line at will. He’s an elite facilitator, all you need to look at is how he led the league in assists per game last season to prove that point. He gives the Clippers another player who can fill it up from outside, improving what was already the third-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA a year ago. L.A.’s need for a lead guard who can initiate the offense and calm things down in tight situations has been a talking point about this team for years, and Harden can certainly provide that. When you look at the trade through that lens, you can see why the Clippers wanted to get this deal done.
However, the amount that L.A. gave up to acquire Harden may burn them on the backend. Keeping Terance Mann was a plus, but losing Robert Covington and Nicolas Batum, two forwards who give L.A. the versatility to play small ball when needed alters the makeup of this team on both ends of the floor. And despite Harden’s individual success throughout his career, each of his last two stops in Philadelphia and Brooklyn haven’t yielded a ton of team success. In fact, Harden actually decreases L.A.’s championship odds, according to projections from SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh:
|
Before Harden trade |
46.7 |
57.0% |
74.7% |
5.7% |
2.6% |
|
After Harden trade |
46.0 |
56.1% |
68.5% |
4.1% |
1.7% |
|
Difference |
-0.7 |
-0.9 |
-6.2% |
-1.6% |
-0.9% |
The Clippers are a different team than any Harden has played with in the past, but nothing about his previous two stints suggests this will be the time he helps carry a team to the NBA Finals.
Luka Doncic is the frontrunner for MVP
Fact or fiction: Fact
You could argue Nikola Jokic is in the lead for this award. You could also argue that Stephen Curry is up there too. But we all know that MVP is just as much a narrative-based award as it is merit-based, and so far this season Doncic has led in both categories. Last season the Mavericks missed the postseason entirely after stringing together enough embarrassing wins and deciding — with two games left in the season — to tank in order to keep their draft pick. It was a bad look from a team that just went to the Western Conference finals in 2021. So to say there was a significant amount of pressure on Dallas entering this season to prove last season was an exception is an understatement.
So far the Mavericks are 3-0, and in those games, Doncic is averaging 39 points, 11.7 rebounds and 9.7 assists. He’s also shooting 55.6% from the field and 48.6% from deep. His scoring is first in the league, his rebounding is first amongst guards and he’s third in assists. The scoring volume is nothing new, but the efficiency is. Doncic has been an average 3-point shooter over his career, but so far this season he’s been damn near automatic from deep. In back-to-back games, he’s knocked down three straight triples to either ice the game for Dallas or extend their lead. It’s been arguably the best start to a season of Doncic’s career, and given he’s gotten a lot of criticism for entering the regular season out of shape, it’s a positive sign for Dallas that their franchise superstar is beginning to take his conditioning seriously. Doncic’s likely to regress over the course of the season, but right now his blistering start has him out front for MVP.
Suns early season injuries are concerning
Fact or fiction: Fiction
The Suns spent big this summer to add Bradley Beal to a lineup that already featured Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, and while the team is 2-1 that trio hasn’t managed to play a single game together yet. Beal hasn’t suited up as he’s been dealing with back pain, an injury Phoenix is reportedly being cautious about. Booker has missed the last two games for the Suns with a foot injury, and is listed as doubtful for Phoenix’s Tuesday night meeting with the Spurs and Victor Wembanyama. It’s easy to draw comparisons to how Durant’s previous team, the Brooklyn Nets, wer…
