The Atlanta Braves, a defensible preseason decide to win the Nationwide League pennant and even perhaps the World Sequence, have had an uneven summer season. They started the season in scorching vogue, profitable 19 of their first 28 video games. They’ve since put up a 35-36 file, inflicting them to slide properly behind the Philadelphia Phillies within the NL East.
The Braves nonetheless maintain the highest wild-card spot, however an lively three-game shedding streak has dropped them to an 8-9 begin to July. Think about a tightened, frantic wild-card race, and maybe it ought to come as no shock that the Braves held a players-only assembly forward of Tuesday evening’s contest in opposition to the Cincinnati Reds — and, coincidentally, per week earlier than the official passing of Main League Baseball’s commerce deadline.
Simply what is going on on with the Braves? We figured this is able to be a great time to verify in. Scroll slowly with us as we look at three causes for the Braves’ sluggish play.
1. Accidents piling up
If you already know nothing else concerning the Braves this season, you most likely know that they’ve handled a rash of accidents to key contributors.
Because it stands, the Braves rank fourth within the majors with 11 gamers on the injured listing. The one groups with extra are the Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds, and New York Yankees. Clever readers are most likely considering “it isn’t simply concerning the amount of accidents, it is concerning the high quality of gamers they’re lacking.” You would be appropriate in that assertion.
The Braves have performed a lot of the season with out ace Spencer Strider, and are presently continuing with out star outfielder and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., heart fielder Michael Harris II, second baseman Ozzie Albies, and left-hander Max Fried. (That is with out mentioning prime prospect Hurston Waldrep or bullpen items like Tyler Matzek and Ray Kerr.) In flip, the Braves additionally rank second within the majors in projected Wins Above Alternative misplaced, behind solely these Dodgers, based on Baseball Prospectus’ knowledge.
2. Playoff odds nearing season-lows
Let’s be clear: gradual begin to July or not, the Braves stay an amazing favourite to make the playoffs. Their postseason odds have taken a success as of late, although, and issues might really feel worse than they’re due to the opposite dynamics at play with this membership.
FanGraphs offers each day playoff odds updates for every workforce. (You may click on right here to see Atlanta’s.) The Braves, who entered Tuesday with a three-game lead for the highest wild-card spot, nonetheless have an 85.8% probability at cracking October. Whereas that, once more, makes them overwhelming favorites to get in, it’s notably additionally near a season-low share.
Actually, solely twice this season have the Braves had worse postseason odds: on June 12 (85.6%), after which on Monday, when their odds have been at 85.7%. A loss in opposition to the Reds on Tuesday would nearly assure that their odds would drop to a season-low.
3. Continued widespread underperformance
The Braves will play their a hundredth sport on Tuesday evening. It is notable, then, that a few of their greatest gamers proceed to rock stat strains that fall properly beneath expectations.
First baseman Matt Olson, not a yr faraway from ending fourth in MVP voting, is sporting a would-be career-worst 92 OPS+. (Olson has been wretched in July, opening the month in a 7-for-62 droop with 19 strikeouts and one house run.) Catcher Sean Murphy and shortstop Orlando Arcia, each All-Stars in 2023, are properly below their very own profession averages. Even reserve outfielder Adam Duvall and the injured trio of Albies, Harris, and Acuña have been below their requirements earlier than they have been positioned on the shelf.
Dangerous or disappointing years occur on the person stage for any variety of causes, together with damage and different misfortunes. However the Braves have sufficient of these occurring concurrently that it is alarming and contributing to their sputtering state forward of the deadline. No marvel they’re calling a players-only assembly — they, identical to everybody else in and round Atlanta, are attempting to determine the right way to get issues again on monitor.
